Iran Conflict Tears Global Oil Market Apart, International Oil Prices Soar with Severe US Price Divergence

Gate News Report, March 20 — The conflict in Iran continues to escalate, causing a clear divergence in the global oil market. U.S. WTI crude prices remain around $97 per barrel, while Middle Eastern spot markets have surged significantly, with Omani crude reaching a record high of $167. Dubai and Brent crude prices have also risen sharply, widening the gap between global benchmarks.

Data shows that the price gap between U.S. and international crude has reached multi-year highs, reflecting differences in energy structures. The U.S., with an output of nearly 13.7 million barrels per day and a net export position, has strong buffer capacity, whereas Europe and Asia face greater pressure amid supply tightness. The disruption of approximately 18% of global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz has been a key trigger for the price split.

The energy shock is rapidly transmitting to the macroeconomic level. European natural gas prices have surged over 30% due to damage to critical processing facilities, and markets expect the European Central Bank may shift toward rate hikes in 2026. Martin Müller stated that inflation risks are resurfacing, and monetary policy outlooks are changing. Meanwhile, the U.S. market is still digesting expectations of future rate cuts, but inflationary pressures also carry upside risks.

To ease supply tensions, the U.S. and several countries have released over 500 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves, setting a record. However, this has also significantly lowered reserve levels, further weakening future resilience against shocks. Analysts warn that if the crisis persists, declining inventories could push international oil prices higher.

Market consensus suggests that the current price divergence is unlikely to last long. As supply bottlenecks persist, the imbalance in the global energy market may gradually transmit to major benchmarks, potentially exerting a deeper impact on inflation and risk assets.