Iran warns that oil prices could soar to $200, and Bitcoin faces a new wave of volatility risk

March 12 News: Iran warned on Wednesday that if the US and Israel continue military actions against Iran, oil prices could double to $200 per barrel. This news immediately drew global market attention and potentially impacted Bitcoin prices. Sebastián Cerano, CEO of Argentine cryptocurrency exchange Ripio, pointed out that high energy prices could worsen inflation, prompting central banks worldwide to delay interest rate cuts, thereby limiting the liquidity needed for Bitcoin to rise.

In recent conflicts, Bitcoin experienced a rapid sell-off followed by a rebound. Currently, the trading price is close to $70,434, slightly higher since the outbreak of war on February 28. However, analysts warn that larger volatility may occur in the future. Although some investors see Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, unlike gold, its performance under geopolitical shocks remains unstable.

Historical data shows that Middle East wars often exert downward pressure on Bitcoin. For example, after Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion” in June 2025, Bitcoin prices plummeted until US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire. Data firm Kaiko analyst Lawrence Fraussen stated that Bitcoin now resembles high-volatility risk assets like tech stocks rather than traditional commodities, and its price is highly sensitive to geopolitical events.

Additionally, although the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission classifies Bitcoin as a commodity, its price behavior differs from oil or gold, making it more susceptible to market sentiment and global economic factors. If the Middle East conflict persists or escalates, Bitcoin is expected to experience more intense price fluctuations, and investors should be cautious of potential sell-offs and risks.

Overall, geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and changes in market liquidity collectively create short-term uncertainty for Bitcoin. Traders and long-term holders should monitor the conflict developments and central bank policies to assess the risks and opportunities for Bitcoin.