Madman Says…
As the March options expiration approaches, previous options sellers hedged their high-level short positions by opening large short contracts. This data was previously unavailable, but it’s clear that during the decline, active sell orders exceeded buy orders, with options sellers actively opening short positions to hedge, causing prices to fall further. Looking at the combined puts around March 13, options sellers have become accelerators—during declines, the drop is faster, and if key levels like 74,000 and 78,000 are successfully reclaimed during the rebound, a sustained strength could emerge.
Within March, the probability of reaching 78,000 is quite high~
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