NYDIG Latest Report: Bitcoin's Correlation with Tech Stocks is Overestimated, 75% of Price Fluctuations Come from Cryptocurrency Market Factors

March 9 News: Digital asset financial firm NYDIG states that the recent synchronized movement between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks has been overinterpreted by the market. The correlation between the two is more due to shared macroeconomic influences rather than structural linkage. NYDIG research head Greg Cipolaro noted in a recent report that Bitcoin’s price has recently risen to about $67,125, similar to the trend of U.S. software stocks. However, this visual similarity does not mean their fundamentals are converging.

Cipolaro explained that the simultaneous rise of Bitcoin and tech stocks likely reflects the market’s common exposure to liquidity conditions and macro risk assets. Factors such as interest rate expectations, global liquidity, and changes in investor risk appetite can all impact growth tech stocks and cryptocurrencies simultaneously. Therefore, viewing Bitcoin as a substitute for software industry or AI-themed assets is an exaggerated market narrative.

Data shows that since Bitcoin hit a historical high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, its correlation with U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, has increased. However, Cipolaro pointed out that this change is not limited to the software sector but is part of a broader cross-asset volatility phenomenon.

From a statistical perspective, only about 25% of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations can be explained by stock market movements, with at least 75% driven by factors within the crypto market itself, such as network activity, on-chain adoption, regulatory policies, and macro capital flows.

Cipolaro also mentioned that Bitcoin has long been called “digital gold,” but its short-term performance has not been as stable a hedge against macro risks as gold. Currently, traders tend to view Bitcoin as part of risk asset allocation rather than purely based on monetary theory.

Nevertheless, NYDIG believes Bitcoin still possesses unique market structure and economic drivers. Growth in blockchain networks, institutional adoption, and regulatory changes create clear differences from traditional assets, supporting Bitcoin’s potential value in portfolio diversification.