Gate News reports that on March 9, a user with a perfect record in oil price-related markets on Polymarket invested $12,000 to buy the option “Crude oil will reach $120 before the end of March,” with an opening average price of 63¢. Currently, this option has a 64% probability. Of the five profitable trades this account has made, four were closed early with profits based on market probability fluctuations, rather than holding until the final settlement of the event.
As the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz has recently been affected by Iran’s situation and related military interventions, facing a substantial blockade and shipping disruption crisis. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has repeatedly announced the closure of the strait and threatened to attack any ships attempting passage. Driven by this geopolitical risk premium, international crude oil prices have risen to around $107.
Against the backdrop of high passage risks through the strait, regional commercial shipping faces an extremely high risk of attack or interception. To avoid armed attacks and ensure safe passage, many international ships and oil tankers passing through the area have recently modified their destination remarks in their Automatic Identification System (AIS) or flown Chinese flags to declare themselves as Chinese vessels or related to China.
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