Gate News reports that on March 16, prediction market Polymarket forecasted the 14 main categories of the 98th Academy Awards. Of these, 12 winners matched the market leaders, with an accuracy rate of 86%.
The 12 accurately predicted categories include Best Picture, Best Editing, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Actor, Best Animated Feature, Best Original Song, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Costume Design, Best Visual Effects, and Best Sound.
The two categories where predictions were incorrect are Best Cinematography and Best Casting. Previously, the prediction for Best Cinematography favored “All Quiet on the Western Front” with an 89% chance, but the award ultimately went to “The Guilty.” Industry analysts noted that “The Guilty” excelled in recreating the Gothic visual style of 1930s Southern America, using innovative natural lighting and shadow contrast techniques to capture supernatural horror elements like vampires. This approach earned higher recognition from the technical branch of the Academy during the final voting stage, leading to the upset.
For Best Casting, the prediction favored “The Guilty” with an 80% chance, but “All Quiet on the Western Front” won. Unlike “The Guilty,” which focused heavily on Michael B. Jordan’s dual roles, “All Quiet on the Western Front” successfully built a large, complex ensemble cast within a rebellious world, with its highly coordinated ensemble performances ultimately winning over most judges.
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