Gate News message: On April 3, the Polymarket “U.S.-Iran ceasefire before May 31” probability has dropped significantly to 39%, down 12% over the past 24 hours. As of now, the event contract for when the U.S. and Iran will reach a ceasefire has nearly reached a total trading volume of $85 million. The rules for this event contract are: if the United States and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement by the specified date (11:59 p.m. Eastern Time in the U.S.)—defined as a public announcement and agreed by both sides to stop direct military action—then the market will resolve to “Yes”; otherwise it will resolve to “No.” A “formal ceasefire agreement” requires the U.S. government and the Iranian government to explicitly and publicly confirm that both sides have agreed to stop military hostilities against each other, or for the existence of a formal ceasefire agreement to be confirmed by an overwhelming consensus reported by the media. Previously, a Department of Defense spokesperson, Sean Parnell, confirmed that the Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, Randy George, is about to resign; this personnel change occurred one day after Trump delivered a nationwide address about the Iran war. Several senior Army officers described George being removed as a “blow to the Army.” They were angry and frustrated about this decision, believing it further intensifies the Army leadership’s long-held sense of being “surrounded.”
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