Gate News reports that on March 12, the prediction market platform Polymarket posted on X stating that U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the Iranian leadership remains “largely intact” and there is no imminent risk of collapse in the short term. According to data from the Polymarket platform, the market’s predicted probability of the Iranian regime collapsing before June 30 is 24%.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
CFTC Chairman Selig: Prediction-market fraudsters will face harsh legal penalties; will not pause rulemaking
In a House hearing, U.S. CFTC Chairman Selig emphasized a “zero-tolerance policy” toward market fraud and manipulation. He responded to questions regarding a $500 million oil futures transaction and said the CFTC is drafting rules to regulate prediction markets. Selig also mentioned a cooperation memorandum of understanding with the SEC to strengthen oversight of digital assets. Given that the CFTC currently has only one commissioner—himself—Selig emphasized operational efficiency and will hire new staff to enhance regulatory capacity.
MarketWhisper50m ago
Prediction Markets Market Share Distribution Revealed, Kalshi Leads at 37.8%
Gate News message, latest data shows the market share distribution among prediction market platforms. Kalshi leads with 37.8% market share, followed by Polymarket at 35.3%. Opinion Labs xyz holds 14.4%, Predict dot fun accounts for 8.5%, and Crypto Com represents 2.5% of the market.
GateNews6h ago
Polymarket Prediction Market Outperforms Wall Street Analysts in Earnings Forecasts, Study Shows
A study by Wolfe Research reveals that anonymous bettors on the Polymarket platform may predict corporate earnings more accurately than Wall Street analysts, with significant accuracy for both optimistic and pessimistic bets. Despite potential, these prediction markets account for a small trading volume.
GateNews12h ago
Kalshi Launches Parental Portal and AI Verification to Combat Underage Misuse of Prediction Market
Kalshi is introducing a parental portal for identity verification and selfie authentication to prevent minors from bypassing age restrictions. This follows scrutiny over its compliance with prediction market regulations amid ongoing lawsuits.
GateNews04-16 01:02
Prediction Market Trading Volume Expected to Exceed $1 Trillion by 2030, Bernstein Report Highlights
Bernstein's report forecasts prediction market trading volume will surge from $51 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030, driven by regulatory clarity, blockchain support, and mainstream integration. Industry revenue is expected to rise from $400 million to $10.8 billion, with retail brokerages gaining a competitive edge.
GateNews04-15 13:16
