Gate News reports that on March 13, a newly created account on Polymarket’s prediction market invested $20,000 to buy the “No” option on the prediction that “U.S. military will enter Iran before March 31.” The opening average price of this bet was $0.75, and the current probability of this event is 75%. The account address is 0x94a88422bca9af3db3045ddbe5f8f6d3be185204.
The Trump administration is currently employing a dual strategy: on one hand, repeatedly emphasizing that the war is nearing its end, describing joint airstrikes as a “significant military progress” and a “strategic victory” to cool down the situation and avoid ground wars in the Middle East, preventing runaway oil prices and worsening domestic inflation; on the other hand, Trump has issued threats of escalation, stating that if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. will retaliate “20 times harder.”
Although the Trump administration attempts to characterize the joint airstrikes as a “tactical success” and gradually withdraw, it has not shown firm resistance to deploying U.S. troops into Iranian territory, instead considering limited special forces operations. However, Washington faces immense pressure from Israel. After the earlier airstrikes severely damaged Iranian regime high-ranking officials, hardliners within Israel believe this is the only historic window to completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat. Since deeply buried high-level nuclear facilities are difficult to fully disable with existing bunker-busting munitions, Israel is lobbying and even pressuring the White House to have U.S. special forces conduct short-term ground infiltration or physical destruction missions to thoroughly eliminate remaining enriched uranium stocks and nuclear materials.
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