Probability of US stock market crash rises to 35%? Bitcoin holds at $67,000, but risk assets may face greater volatility

On March 9, news reports indicate that despite increased volatility in the global financial markets, Bitcoin prices remain relatively stable. However, analysts warn that if the U.S. stock market experiences a significant correction, the crypto market could face new downward pressure. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $67,378, up approximately 1.1% in the past 24 hours, and roughly flat for the week.

In major cryptocurrencies, Ethereum has risen about 2.3% to $1,981, still below the $2,000 mark; BNB increased 1.4% to $624; Dogecoin up about 1.8% to $0.09; Solana is at $83.69, slightly higher but down about 1.5% over the past week; XRP remains near $1.35, with a weekly decline of about 1%.

Meanwhile, pressure on global financial markets has significantly increased. S&P 500 futures declined over 2 during Asian trading hours, and the VIX index, which measures market fear, rose to its highest level since April’s tariff turmoil. The energy markets are also tense, with international oil prices surpassing $100, and the U.S. dollar posting its largest weekly gain in nearly a year.

Senior strategist Ed Yardeni has raised the probability of a U.S. stock market crash from 20% to 35%, while lowering the chance of a significant rally to just 5%. He noted that if oil shocks persist, the U.S. economy will face dual challenges of rising inflation and increased employment pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy options.

Historical data shows that during extreme risk-averse sentiment, investors tend to withdraw from high-volatility assets and shift to cash, the dollar, and government bonds. Although Bitcoin is often called “digital gold,” its performance during multiple market shocks since 2020 has often synchronized with stock market declines.

Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, stated in a report that Bitcoin’s recent correlation with U.S. tech stocks mainly stems from macro liquidity conditions rather than structural links. Data indicates that about 25% of Bitcoin’s price volatility can be explained by stock market movements, with the remaining 75% driven by factors within the crypto market itself, including network adoption, regulatory developments, and capital flows.

The global stock market outlook remains pessimistic. The MSCI World Equity Index fell 3.7% last week, with Asian markets experiencing the largest declines. After a historic two-day plunge, South Korean stocks have not fully recovered, and hedge funds are increasing short positions on U.S. stock ETFs. As the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rises, concerns about inflation triggered by oil shocks are intensifying.