Rising real interest rates are suppressing Bitcoin’s upside potential, and cooling ETF demand and weakening demand are the key variables.

Gate News reports that, as of the end of March 2026, the Bitcoin price remained around $67,400, with a slight weekly increase of about 2%, but signs of loosening in the market’s supply-demand structure have appeared. Under the dual influence of cooling institutional capital and rising macro interest rates, Bitcoin’s short-term upward momentum has been significantly restrained.

Data shows that inflows into spot ETFs have slowed, while the total stablecoin supply growth has stagnated, reflecting a slowdown in the pace at which new fiat funds enter the market. Correspondingly, Bitcoin supply has continued to be released steadily. Since the 2024 halving, the block reward has decreased to 3.125 BTC, and the current daily new supply is about 450 coins. Against the backdrop of weakening demand, the market’s capacity to absorb new supply is declining.

The AER (Absorption-to-Issue Ratio) indicator shows that institutional demand strength has sharply fallen from 5.3 times in February to 1.3 times, entering the “passive absorption” zone. This indicates that current demand is only slightly above miners’ selling pressure; without sustained capital inflows, Bitcoin prices are unlikely to develop a trend of sustained upward movement.

On the macro level, “real interest rates” have become a key variable suppressing the market. The U.S. 10-year TIPS yield has risen over 30 basis points since late February, reaching as high as 2.12%, the highest since mid-2025. The rise in real yields enhances the attractiveness of risk-free assets, causing capital to flow out of non-cash-flow assets like Bitcoin.

Michael J. Kramer pointed out that the increase in long-term real interest rates is faster than that of short-term rates, indicating that the market is re-pricing expectations of a tighter financial environment. Additionally, crude oil prices remain high, further tightening overall liquidity and exerting external pressure on risk assets.

In the current environment, Bitcoin’s trajectory depends more on liquidity improvements and changes in interest rate expectations. Without signals of rate cuts or capital returning, the market may continue to stay in a range-bound pattern. (CoinDesk)