Solana ETF attracts $1.45 billion, surpassing Bitcoin in market capitalization after adjustment

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that since the Solana ETF launched in July 2025, it has attracted approximately $1.45 billion in net inflows, despite SOL tokens declining over 57% during the same period. When adjusted for market cap differences between Solana and Bitcoin, this $1.45 billion is equivalent to twice the actual inflow of Bitcoin ETFs during the same timeframe.

Institutional Funds Continue to Flow Into Bear Markets: The Structural Phenomenon of $1.45 Billion

(Source: Bloomberg Intelligence)

Typically, a 57% drop in assets over a short period would cause significant capital outflows, but the Solana ETF exhibits the opposite pattern: capital inflows persisted or even accelerated during the token’s steep decline. This extreme divergence signals that a “Serious Investor Base” is forming, according to Balchunas.

According to 13F filings, the main holders of the Solana ETF are institutional investors, hedge funds, pension funds, and asset management firms. These institutions hold for the long term, based on the ecosystem’s potential, rather than short-term price movements. SOL is currently trading around $85, which some institutions see as a deep discount from its $300 all-time high, explaining why they continue to invest at this stage.

Balchunas’s Market Cap Adjustment Framework: A New Benchmark for Relative Capital Attraction

Eric Balchunas proposed a market cap-adjusted comparison framework to more accurately evaluate the Solana ETF’s relative performance:

• Original Inflows: Since launch, the Solana ETF has netted about $1.45 billion, with nearly 100% retention and minimal redemptions.
• Market Cap-Adjusted Equivalent: Solana’s market cap is roughly 1/28 to 1/30 of Bitcoin’s. When scaled proportionally, this equates to about $54 billion at Bitcoin’s level.
• Comparison with Bitcoin ETF: This adjusted amount is twice the inflow of Bitcoin ETFs during the same period, despite SOL dropping 57% while Bitcoin remains relatively stable.

Balchunas emphasizes that the continued capital accumulation and high retention rate reflect a “high-confidence institutional base,” which historically precedes large-scale price recoveries. This pattern has been observed in history and is not a direct prediction of Solana’s future performance.

Changes in Supply Structure: Divergence Between Inflows and Circulating Supply

When large amounts of SOL tokens enter institutional custody via ETFs, some tokens that could circulate in the market are transferred to cold storage. Market observers note a similar dynamic in Bitcoin—significant outflows from centralized exchanges into long-term holdings.

From a supply-demand perspective, if holdings remain steady but circulating supply decreases, seller liquidity diminishes. Some analysts consider the $100 level a psychological threshold worth monitoring. If ETF inflows continue at the current pace, this price could become a short-term market focus, though actual impact depends on overall market supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why can the Solana ETF maintain positive capital inflows during a 57% decline in SOL?
A: According to 13F filings and Eric Balchunas, the main holders are institutional investors, hedge funds, and asset managers with long-term horizons. They buy based on the ecosystem’s potential, not short-term price movements. This leads to continued or increased holdings despite the token’s decline, forming a “Serious Investor Base.”

Q: What is Balchunas’s “market cap adjustment” analysis, and why is it important?
A: Since Solana’s market cap is much lower than Bitcoin’s, directly comparing ETF inflows isn’t fair. Balchunas scales Solana’s $1.45 billion inflow to an equivalent of about $54 billion at Bitcoin’s market cap, roughly twice the Bitcoin ETF inflow, providing a more accurate comparison of relative capital demand within each asset’s market size.

Q: How does ETF capital inflow affect SOL’s supply and demand structure?
A: When SOL enters institutional custody via ETFs (especially cold storage), these tokens exit circulating supply. If demand remains steady but circulating supply decreases, seller liquidity drops. This could amplify future price increases if demand rises, but actual effects depend on overall market supply-demand dynamics and macro factors. This is not investment advice.