Gate News reports that on March 11, according to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 24 hours, an address with an 78% win rate in the Israel sector bet $9,500 that “the Iranian regime will not fall in June,” with an opening average price of 77¢, currently at 77.5¢. Since the outbreak of joint warfare on February 28, precise Israeli and U.S. military strikes have resulted in the death of Ali Khamenei, Iran’s highest leader for 37 years, as well as several senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and high-ranking military officials. An Iranian expert meeting recently officially announced that Khamenei’s second son, 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei, has succeeded as the third-generation Supreme Leader. Previously, during intensive bombings targeting underground air defense bunkers of the leader, Israeli media widely circulated rumors that Mojtaba had been killed or seriously injured. Although he has now been officially announced as the successor, he has not appeared in any public events since the war began. Mojtaba, a longtime behind-the-scenes “butler,” is deeply linked with the heavily armed Revolutionary Guard. Even after extreme decapitation strikes, Iran’s vast security apparatus and established power transfer network continue to forcibly maintain the system. Note: Based on his past trading profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually happen; there are behaviors of taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening a position. Account: 0xf1899a30a2c016941bf4abd77b900ecacd768e47.
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