The Old Token Playbook Is Dead: Why Most Crypto Launches Failed in 2025

The old “token playbook” is over, according to 21Shares researcher Darius Moukhtarzade, who said that launching at high FDV, low float with a governance “meme coin” does not work anymore.

Moukhtarzade explained that there is a widening “sentiment-fundamentals gap” as the core reason behind failing token launches. On one hand, fundamentals remain strong, amid a growing global user base, improving regulatory clarity, rising institutional participation, and scalable infrastructure supporting long-term adoption.

On the other hand, market sentiment is deeply negative. This is evidenced in extreme fear levels, repeated failures of recent token generation events (TGEs), and capital dilution caused by an explosion in the number of tokens.

Additionally, changing investor focus toward AI and lingering distrust from past extractive project behavior have further weakened demand. This disconnect means that even fundamentally sound projects struggle to attract liquidity and interest, which causes token launches to underperform despite favorable macro tailwinds

The New Token Playbook

To address this, Moukhtarzade has proposed a framework that focuses on designing tokens so users earn more by holding them rather than selling quickly.

The framework highlights that many existing models create a “race to the exit,” where holders compete to sell first, and instead calls for aligning teams, investors, and users so they benefit together as value builds over time.

It also focuses on tying token value to real fundamentals such as revenue generation instead of hype, distributing that value directly to holders (for instance, through revenue share), and treating holding as participation in the protocol’s growth, where longer holding leads to greater contribution and rewards.

State of Token Launches

Token launches in 2025 have largely underperformed. Data shows that about 85% of projects are trading below their TGE valuation, meaning nearly 4 out of 5 are in the red. Only 15.3% of tokens are in profit.

There are several major execution mistakes that are contributing to weak token launches, despite favorable industry tailwinds, according to Moukhtarzade. While speaking at the EthCC conference, the 21Shares researcher explained that a major issue is overpricing, where projects launch at inflated FDV with limited circulating supply. This ends up creating a mismatch between private valuations and what public markets are willing to support.

At the same time, founder overconfidence often leads teams to ignore broader market conditions, launching into weak or bearish environments where demand is already constrained. Another critical misstep is underestimating sell pressure at the token generation event, as airdrop recipients, early investors, and liquidity providers tend to take profits immediately. This adds to downward pressure.

Many projects also launch too early, before achieving product-market fit or sustainable revenue, turning the token into a substitute for real traction rather than a complement to it.

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