Gate News: On March 10, on the prediction market Polymarket, two high-probability addresses collectively wagered $13,400 on the outcome “U.S.-Iran ceasefire in June” over the past day. The opening prices ranged from 68¢ to 72.3¢, currently at 70¢. The Washington Post reports that parties remain unclear about the goals of this war, with the most relevant point to a ceasefire being: Iran now wants “an end to the war,” not just a temporary ceasefire arrangement. Tehran is not satisfied with a short-term ceasefire and prefers the war to end on its terms. Given the significant gap between the parties’ ultimate objectives, reaching an executable ceasefire in the short term will be considerably more difficult. Trump stated that the conflict “will end soon,” but also threatened that if Iran continues to attempt to influence oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, it will face “much more severe” retaliation. Iran, on the other hand, says the end of the war should be decided by Iran, not the United States. The two addresses are: 0x10e420926d84ddbb9042a573323d6a745d98b019 and 0xa9e64cc5fcda8edc389b1f979922566ff2b91dc2.
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