Gate News, March 20 — Data from a prediction market platform shows that two high-probability addresses for political event predictions have invested a total of $9,700. In the event of “Will the U.S. military invade Iran this year,” they have purchased “No,” with the current probability of “No” at 40%.
The platform’s standard for determining “invasion” is: a military attack launched by the U.S. aimed at controlling any part of Iran’s territory, which is different from “attack” or “U.S. military entry.”
Today, during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Yoshida at the White House, Trump was asked by reporters whether he would send U.S. ground troops to Iran. Trump responded, “I won’t put troops anywhere,” emphasizing the continued threat of remote retaliation against Iran during ongoing strikes on Qatar.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated at a Pentagon press conference the U.S. military’s goals: to destroy Iran’s missile launch capabilities, target its defense industry and navy, and prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. He also specifically rebutted outside claims that the U.S. is sliding into “endless wars” and a “quagmire.”
According to trading profile analysis, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually happen; they may open a position and then take profits or cut losses at a certain point. The involved account addresses are: 0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71 and 0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8.
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