Gate News: On March 11, Polymarket’s prediction market data showed that two traders collectively invested $13,200 to buy the “No” option on the prediction that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen before April 30. The average opening price for these bets was 45¢, and the current probability of the “No” option is 46%. The market generally believes that U.S. President Trump is concerned that soaring oil prices could trigger inflation and is seeking to end the conflict as soon as possible. Iran, on the other hand, is employing asymmetric tactics in the Strait of Hormuz, with CNN citing sources revealing that Iran has recently deployed dozens of mines in the strait. According to the market definition, if before April 30, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz (including container ships, dry bulk carriers, oil tankers, etc.) as reported by IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average reaches or exceeds 60 vessels, the market will settle as “Yes.” Based on trading patterns, this trader may have taken profits or cut losses at some point, rather than betting on the final outcome of the event. Trading accounts are: 0x1c72797cd4b9b83f42e287144e334c4de347dfb6; 0xa81eefec9c08fa157d855f1ac5caf8feab1903dc.
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