Gate News: On March 24, the movement in the U.S. Treasury market could have a profound impact on the Trump administration’s decision-making in the Iran war and indirectly influence Bitcoin’s price trend. As the conflict continues, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.37%, with swap spreads approaching 50 basis points. Market concerns about rising financing costs may force the government to reassess its war strategy. Padhraic Garvey, Head of Americas Research at ING, pointed out that once swap spreads break above 60 basis points, the U.S. government will face higher debt financing costs, potentially tightening the overall financial system and triggering risk-off sentiment in stocks and Bitcoin.
Analysts note that the 10-year Treasury yield between 4.5% and 4.6% is a critical range. If it breaks through this level, the U.S. government may feel pressure to de-escalate the conflict. Historical experience shows that when yields reach 4.6%, Trump has paused implementing tariffs on “Liberation Day.” Recently, Trump announced a halt to attacks on Iran’s infrastructure, but the U.S. and Israel still conducted limited operations against energy facilities. The market remains highly attentive to future policy directions.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of CEX and Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom Fund, warned that if yields rise to 5%, it could trigger a small financial crisis, prompting the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity to stabilize the market. For Bitcoin, this means short-term prices may face downward pressure, but liquidity injections could quickly boost bullish sentiment.
Overall, Bitcoin traders should closely monitor changes in U.S. Treasury yields and swap spreads, as these indicators not only influence U.S. policy choices but also directly affect risk asset preferences. With geopolitical tensions and financial market volatility intertwined, Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2026 could experience rapid fluctuations. Market participants should consider macro bond market risks and potential policy interventions in their investment strategies, especially when engaging in leveraged trading and long positions. (CoinDesk)
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