March 12 News: As the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, the market is beginning to focus on how this political cycle might impact Bitcoin’s price movement. A research organization recently reported that midterm election years in the U.S. tend to be associated with higher political uncertainty. Risk assets usually perform poorly during this period, but once election results are clear, markets often experience a significant rebound.
Historical data shows that during the four-year U.S. presidential cycle, midterm election years are among the weakest periods for the S&P 500. Statistics indicate that the index typically declines by about 16% on average during midterm years, with seven out of ten cycles experiencing drops of over 10%. Due to the high correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market at the macro level, Bitcoin’s average decline during U.S. midterm election years has even reached approximately 56%.
However, markets tend to recover quickly after the elections. Data shows that within 12 months after the midterms, the S&P 500 typically rises by about 19%, while Bitcoin’s rebound is even more pronounced, with an average increase of around 54% during the same period. Analysts believe this trend is mainly due to the easing of political uncertainty. As policy directions become clearer, funds tend to flow back into high-risk, high-volatility assets.
Meanwhile, several analysts have pointed out that Bitcoin’s historical movements coincide with the timing of midterm elections. The past three midterm election years—2014, 2018, and 2022—were all bear market phases for Bitcoin, with market bottoms often occurring around the November elections.
On-chain data analyst Willy Woo recently made a similar assessment. He believes the current bear market trend could end in the fourth quarter of 2026. Some more aggressive predictions even suggest that Bitcoin’s price might fall back to around $30,000 at cycle lows before entering a new long-term upward phase.
On-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant has narrowed down the potential bottom range to between June and December 2026, with September to November considered as high-probability windows for a temporary bottom.
Multiple studies indicate that if historical cycles continue to play a role, the second half of 2026—especially the months surrounding the U.S. midterm elections—could be significant for the Bitcoin market. However, analysts also warn that the current structure of the crypto market is changing. Factors such as global monetary policies, geopolitical risks, and catalysts within the digital asset industry itself could introduce new influences on price trends.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
BTC 15-minute up 0.46%: spot trading volume expansion and derivatives long position buildup as two drivers
From 2026-04-15 19:30 to 19:45 (UTC), the BTC price fluctuated between 74,706.2 and 75,276.9 USDT. Within 15 minutes, the return reached +0.46%, and the range was 0.76%. Trading activity in the market for this window was active: spot trading volume rose 18% compared with the previous hour’s average. Volatility increased in the short term, and overall market attention improved.
The main drivers behind this abnormal move are the short-term amplification of spot market trading volume and the coordinated increase in long positions in the derivatives market. Derivatives futures open interest (Open Interest) during this period, on a month-over-month basis,
GateNews3h ago
BTC Breaks Through 75000 USDT
Gate News bot 消息，Gate 行情显示，BTC 突破 75000 USDT，现价 75000 USDT。
CryptoRadar3h ago
Tether Withdraws 951 BTC Worth $70.47M from Major CEX, Holds $7.2B in Bitcoin Reserves
Tether's BTC reserve address withdrew 951 BTC valued at $70.47 million, part of Q1 2026 purchases. It now holds 97,141 BTC worth around $7.2 billion, making it the fifth-largest BTC wallet with unrealized gains of $2.175 billion.
GateNews7h ago
BTC 15-minute drop of 0.62%: Exchange net inflows and liquidity depletion in sync trigger selling pressure
2026-04-15 14:30 to 2026-04-15 14:45 (UTC), the BTC price’s return over 15 minutes was -0.62%. The quoted range was 73,905.4 to 74,448.0 USDT, with a swing of 0.73%. Market volatility quickly intensified, drawing widespread attention from investors, and short-term trading activity became active.
The main driver behind this unusual movement was BTC net inflows to exchanges. On-chain data shows that during this period, about 6 BTC ($420,690) moved into exchanges, combined with the fact that the market’s overall order book depth has been continuing since February
GateNews8h ago
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana ETFs Record Positive Net Inflows on April 15
Gate News message, according to the April 15 update, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of 4,566 BTC (approximately $337.41 million) and a 7-day net inflow of 6,753 BTC (approximately $499.04 million). Ethereum ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of 23,405 ETH (approximately $54.37 million)
GateNews9h ago
BTC 15-minute drop of 0.70%: Increased ETF fund outflows and a coordinated sell-pressure trigger from derivatives position adjustments
From 2026-04-15 13:30 to 13:45 (UTC), the BTC price fluctuated within the range of 73,846.3 to 74,415.9 USDT. Within 15 minutes, the return recorded -0.70%, with an amplitude of 0.77%. During this period, market volatility intensified, trading volume and on-chain transfers heated up significantly, and market participants’ risk sensitivity increased.
The main driving force behind this unusual move was a sharp increase in ETF fund outflows. Data shows that on 2026-04-13, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of -231.7 million dollars, far above the one-week average
GateNews9h ago
