Gate News message, April 8, according to monitoring by Lookonchain, four suspected insider-trading addresses profited by about $663k by betting on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before April 7. Most of these wallets were created on April 7 and funded after that; a few hours before the ceasefire news was released, they bought the “YES” option. Previously, there was no activity record—only a bet on this event—entered at extremely low odds (3.9%).

Gate News message, April 3, Polymarket prediction market data shows that the probability of USD.ai having an FDV over $100 million on the day after launch is 92%, the probability of over $150 million is 85%, and the probability of over $200 million is 50%. As of now, trading volume in this prediction market has already exceeded $2.5 million.

On Polymarket, one account staked $170,000 on the Mavericks to beat the Spurs, with odds over 70%. The Mavericks’ current record is 39 wins and 37 losses, ranked 8th in the Western Conference; the Spurs are 57 wins and 18 losses, ranked 2nd. Victor Wembanyama may be sidelined.

TD Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg is pessimistic about the outlook for the Clarity Act, the crypto market structure bill, saying the odds of the bill passing both the House and the Senate are only one-third. A recent compromise proposal on stablecoin yield returns failed to move the bill forward, which could leave both crypto platforms and banks dissatisfied. The bill is most likely to advance in late July, but even optimistic senators have begun to lower their expectations.

A trader capitalized on a commentary error during an UFC match, quickly profiting from $676 to approximately $67,608, sparking discussions about real-time odds mechanisms. This incident highlights the high volatility of prediction markets and the importance of information judgment and reaction speed; the phenomenon of "information arbitrage" may become increasingly frequent in the future.

10x Research analysis indicates that Circle is facing intensified stablecoin economic competition with a certain CEX. Circle's stock price declined due to CLARITY Act uncertainty, but the legislation could bring structural benefits. Circle supports stablecoin regulation in exchange for legitimacy, while the certain CEX prioritizes short-term profitability. Their business models are at odds; under regulation, Circle may forgo high-margin distribution in exchange for sustained "regulatory certainty" and drive institutional adoption and financial integration.

Gate News report: On March 24, the latest data from Polymarket shows that market odds on Opensea launching a token by September 30 this year have dropped to 33%, while the probability of a token launch by December 31 stands at 69%. The prediction market has currently reached a trading volume of $1.238 million.

On March 24, Bitcoin rebounded to $71,000, causing the event probability of "Bitcoin falls to $65,000 in March" on Polymarket to drop to 28%. The probability of "Bitcoin falls to $60,000 in March" is 8%, while the probability of "rising to $80,000" is 9%. The current Bitcoin price is 71037.5 USDT, with a 24-hour gain of 0.29%.

On March 20, prediction platforms showed the probability of the U.S. confirming the existence of extraterrestrials before 2027 rose to 17%. The White House-registered "aliens.gov" currently has no content. Trump announced plans to declassify UFO-related files, with the Defense Secretary confirming a review is underway, though no timeline was disclosed. Former officials claim the government holds numerous unpublished video evidence.

On Polymarket, an account placed a $100,000 wager predicting Gen.G to win in the League of Legends International Wildcards Group Stage, with odds exceeding 74%. Gen.G defeated JDG 3:0 in the first round, while LYON defeated LOUD 3:2.