Gate News reports that, according to the latest survey by Reuters on March 26, the expected average U.S. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation rate will be 3.3% in Q2 2026, 3.1% in Q3, and 2.9% in Q4.

The Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18. Market attention will be on Powell's comments regarding inflation and future policy. Rising core PCE and oil price pressures limit the room for rate cuts, with only a 30% chance of easing this year. Political factors influencing Powell's tenure have led to noticeable market reactions, and risk assets as well as cryptocurrency prices are expected to be affected.

Middle East tensions escalate as U.S. military takes action against Iranian energy facilities. Iran warns of retaliation, Strait of Hormuz transit volume declines, shipping risks rise, and aluminum supply chains tighten. U.S. 2022 GDP revised down to 0.7%, PCE remains at 3.1%, and the job market stays resilient. In the crypto market, BTC returns to the key level of 71,300 dollars.

Gate News reported that on March 13, American financial website investinglive stated that the latest report shows core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve) has recorded a month-over-month increase of 0.4% for two consecutive months. The overall data basically aligns with expectations. If similar data continues for several more months, the inflation rate will rapidly approach 2%, and these data will still be factored into year-over-year calculations over the next 10 months. Additionally, an energy price shock is about to arrive.

Today, the cryptocurrency market faces important option expiration and PCE inflation data release, with cautious market sentiment. Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire, with traders expecting Bitcoin to maintain high-level oscillation. Ethereum support is being watched at the $2,100 range. U.S. macroeconomic policy and energy market volatility are similarly affecting market sentiment.

Gate News Report, on March 10th, February's non-farm payroll data showed weaker-than-expected employment performance, forming a stark contrast to the market's general expectation of resilience. However, the market's rate cut expectations have not significantly adjusted as a result. The interest rate market data indicates that the next rate cut is still highly likely to occur in the second half of the year. This week, both CPI and PCE data will be released successively. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's decision next week, whether inflation data can signal a cooling trend and resonate with employment figures will be the market's focus. Analysts believe that the rebound in energy prices may hinder inflation cooling, making it difficult for the data to shake the Fed's wait-and-see stance.

This week will release the US February CPI and unemployment data, as well as the January PCE Price Index. Meanwhile, US and Israeli military actions may impact oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. The implied volatility of major maturities has risen significantly, with BTC short-term IV exceeding 65%, ETH short-term IV exceeding 80%, and the skew indicator declining.

The U.S. economy faces challenges of high inflation and high interest rates, with GDP growth in 2025 expected to fall short of expectations. Core PCE has hit new highs, and the interest rate market has abandoned expectations of rate cuts. Federal Reserve officials have signaled a hawkish stance, and it is expected that short-term market volatility will be driven by data and policy expectations.

ChainCatcher message, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that the latest PCE data is far from the 2% target.

ChainCatcher reports that at 21:30 Beijing time, the United States will unveil key data including the December PCE Price Index and the Q4 actual GDP annualized quarterly rate. The market generally expects inflation to modestly rebound and the economy to remain resilient. This combination could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut outlook and reinforce the stance of holding steady. Caution is advised for market fluctuations at that time.