Based on the latest market conditions (updated at 14:26), combined with technical indicators and market sentiment, we have formulated an accurate trading strategy for you:

### Current key point confirmation
**Support Level**
① Intraday strong support **2,915-2,920** (yesterday's low + liquidation cluster)
② Psychological level **2,900** (weekly support)
**Pressure Level**
① First resistance of the rebound **2,965** (early session oscillation center)
② Reversal confirmation level **2,980** (MA30 + intraday high)

### Technical Indicator Analysis
mermaid
graph LR
B[4-hour chart]
A --> C[1-hour chart]
B1(MA5 crossing below MA10 death cross )
B2(MACD histogram shortening )
C1( KDJ Oversold K=84.68)
C2( decreasing trading volume )
D[Short-term downward trend confirmation]

### Current Optimal Trading Strategy (Empty Position State)
#### Main Strategy: **Short on highs** (success rate > 70%)
1. **Short Position Entry**
- Ideal Position: **2,960-2,965** (Morning Pressure Conversion Zone)
- Aggressive Position: **2,955** (3 dollars above the current price)

2. **Stop Loss Settings**
- Absolute Stop Loss: **2,975** (breakthrough this level indicates trend reversal)
- Trailing Stop: Move down to **2,955** after the price falls below 2,945

3. **Target Level**
- First target **2,930** (Profit $25/per contract)
- Second target **2,915** (Profit $40/Contract)
- Ultimate Goal **2,900** (Profit $55/Contract)

#### Trading strategy: **Quick drop rebound** (only during rapid sell-offs)
- Trigger condition: Price **drops ≥1.5%** within 5 minutes to below 2,915
- Long Position: **2,910-2,915**
- Stop Loss: **2,905** (strict)
- Target: **2,935** (quick in and out)

### Position Management Plan ($6000 Principal)
| Strategy | Position | Contract Number ( 5x ) | Stop Loss Amount | Expected Profit |
|----------|-------|------------|-------|---------|
| Main Strategy Short | 40% | 4 lots | $120 | $200+ |
| Trading strategy Long | 15% | 1.5 contracts | $45 | $75 |
| Reserved Cash | 45% | - | - | - |

### Core Indicator Validation
1. **Liquidation Heatmap**：
- There is a $3.8 million stop-loss order for short positions at 2,965 above → The price will accelerate downward when it is reached.
- There is a $12 million long liquidation at 2,920 below → strong support

2. **Large Holder Trends**：
- Long-short position ratio 1.02 → Bulls still dominate but are continuously declining
- Funding Rate -0.028% → Short positions incur a fee, beware of short squeeze

3. **Volume Analysis**：
- Active sell orders 684,900 > buy orders 342,400 → Institutional selling pressure dominates

### key time window
- **14:30** US Initial Jobless Claims data (if < 230,000, bearish for the crypto market)
- **16:00** European market main trading period
- **22:00** US PPI data release

> ✨ **trading strategy**：
> **"Asian盘 breaks the bottom, European continues to fall, rebound does not exceed 2965 short
> Urgently kill 2915 to bet long, data moment cash guard"**

### Risk Warning
1. If the price **stays stable at 2,965 for 30 minutes**, stop loss for short positions and observe.
2. Avoid trading during the data release moment of **14:25-14:35**
3. Stop trading if today's loss ≥ $600

(According to MACD 55.06 still above the zero axis, the long-term trend has not entered a bear market, but there is significant short-term adjustment pressure. It is recommended to primarily short with some long positions.)