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On Polymarket, the majority predicts a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
Overall, interest rate cuts are good for the market, but sometimes the benefits are realized in advance, and the US stock market is at historical highs, leading to profit-taking!
Typical historical rate cuts, market reaction
If interest rate cuts are accompanied by recession/financial crisis → the market often declines.
If interest rate cuts are preventive easing / soft landing → the market often rises.
The key lies in the background: the market is more concerned with "why interest rates are lowered" rather than "whether interest rates will be lowered."