🌙 Tonight the market is in a very delicate position, on one side is the uncertainty brought by the potential U.S. government shutdown, and on the other side is the oversold rebound opportunity that has emerged in the crypto market after consecutive falls. It's like a tug-of-war, with macro concerns and technical repairs struggling against each other.

The core dynamics to pay attention to tonight are summarized below.

🗳️ Government Shutdown

If the US government really shuts down on October 1, it will not just be news for the market; it will bring some tangible effects.

Historical experience shows that government shutdowns tend to exacerbate market risk aversion, and risk assets such as US stocks and encryption usually face pressure.

The most direct impact is that the non-farm payroll report, originally scheduled to be released this Friday, may be delayed. This report is one of the key bases for the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate policy, and its absence will leave the market groping in the dark, unable to accurately assess the health of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's next move, which will itself exacerbate market volatility and a wait-and-see sentiment.

📊 Current market situation and night operation strategy

The crypto market has shown weak performance recently, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $110,000. The Fear and Greed Index also indicates that market sentiment is quite pessimistic. However, there are also some oversold signs in the market, suggesting that there may be rebound opportunities in the short term.

Based on the analysis above, the trading approach for tonight is: to take a light position near the key support level and try to go long, with strict stop-loss and quick in and out.

The following are some reference points for night operations. Please note that this is only an example of strategic thinking and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is highly volatile, so be sure to do your own research (DYOR).

BTC light position try long
Entry: Around 113,200 - 113,600
Stop loss: below 112,700
Target: 115,000 - 115,500
Rebound hindered short.
Entry: Around 115,500 when under pressure
Stop Loss: Above 116,000
Target: 114,200 - 114,500
ETH light position try long
Entry: around 4,110 - 4,130
Stop loss: below 4,060
Target: 4,230 - 4,250
Regional rebound hindered short positions
Entry: around 4,250 under pressure
Stop loss: above 4,300
Target: 4,150 - 4,180

💎 Summary

Overall, the key to the market tonight is balancing two factors: on one hand, the macro risks such as government shutdowns and the data uncertainty they bring; on the other hand, the short-term Oversold Rebound demand that arises in the market itself after a continuous fall.

For night trading, the core recommendation is:

Keep your positions light: with high uncertainty, do not heavily gamble.
Stop loss must be strict: Set a stop loss in advance to protect your capital.
Expectations should be low: treat it as a short-term opportunity within a volatile range, and secure profits promptly.

I hope these analyses can help you better plan your evening trades. Please note that all of the above is for reference only, the market has risks, and investment should be done with caution.
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