Last night at 20:30, when the US September CPI data was released, I flipped through a dozen crypto world communities and found that the discussion heat couldn't even last half an hour.

It's not that the data is useless, but the current market has long locked its focus on more critical signals: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October has surged to 98.3%, and even the probability of an additional 25 basis points cut within the year, totaling a 50 basis points reduction, has soared to 93.4%.
To be honest, the current market is not really about "data determining direction", but rather the expectation that "interest rate cuts will land", which has completely locked in the flow of funds. This is a core point that I have repeatedly emphasized to newcomers after discussing with institutional friends recently: expectations are 10 times more important than short-term data, especially in the current crypto market.
Why is it said that interest rate cuts are a direct benefit? Let me break down the underlying logic for everyone:
First, the essence of interest rate cuts is to loosen the liquidity of the US dollar — simply put, it means there is more "live money" in the market, and mainstream crypto assets like BTC and ETH, which have consensus, are always the "preferred allocation targets" during liquidity easing, providing more "fuel" for price increases; secondly, even if tonight's CPI data exceeds expectations (for example, inflation hasn't decreased), the market is unlikely to take it seriously — feedback I received from several Wall Street analysts indicates that the Federal Reserve's focus has now shifted towards the labor market, and even if the CPI fluctuates in the short term, it won't stop the rate cut in October. Therefore, even if there is volatility in coin prices at that time, it might actually be a good opportunity for beginners to buy the dip.
As an analyst with 8 years of experience in the crypto market, here are 3 practical suggestions for beginners to help you catch this wave of market trends and avoid making the same mistakes as those before you:
First, don't be washed out by short-term fluctuations. I've seen too many newcomers panic and sell when the CPI comes out and the coin price drops by 2%, only to see the price rise again in a couple of days due to heightened expectations of interest rate cuts. The current drop is likely the last round of "panic washing," after all, once interest rates are cut, the trend will most likely be upward. Holding onto core assets is better than making random moves.
Second, prioritize anchoring to "core assets". Don't rush to chase after those obscure coins with hard-to-pronounce names. After the interest rate cuts, funds will surely flow first to assets with strong consensus and stable fundamentals, such as BTC and ETH. They have lower risk, and their rise is more stable. Beginners should first secure the "basic foundation" before discussing others.
Third, leave some "room" in your position. If you want to enter the market, absolutely avoid going all in at once - I recommend starting with 15%-20% of idle funds to test the waters. Once you see that the market has really stabilized (for example, BTC holds a key level), you can gradually increase your position. This way, even if you encounter volatility, you won't panic due to a heavy position and can instead make more rational judgments.
A fan complained to me earlier that last year, because he was fixated on the CPI data, he sold his BTC and then watched it rise by 40%, regretting it after slapping his thigh. In fact, the current crypto world market is very simple: don't try to guess short-term data, but follow the "interest rate cut trend". Newbies never earn "money from guessing data", but "money from understanding trends and holding onto assets".
If you are now looking at the K-line and don't know whether to buy or sell, want to understand the in-depth logic of the crypto market, are afraid of missing out on cutting-edge information, or want to avoid common pitfalls for beginners, then follow me. I will break down the core logic of the market once a week, share a beginner's tip to avoid pitfalls, and help you earn "trend money" clearly, without becoming "chives" in the market.

Recently, the puppies on the Ethereum chain in the primary market have performed well and can be ambushed.
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