#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the probability of Stable's first day FDV exceeding 2 billion dollars on Polymarket soaring to 85%, I suddenly remembered those new projects that were similarly hyped to sky-high prices before their launch a few years ago. Data can lie, but history never repeats itself - it just sometimes rhymes.

This probability figure is quite interesting in itself. 85% means that the market consensus is already quite solid, but that remaining 15% risk often becomes the turning point of the story. I have experienced too many moments when 'cautious expectations' were slapped in the face by reality on the first day—certain star projects in 2017 and various new coins during the DeFi craze in 2021 have all gone down this path without exception.

The key point is that the FDV metric itself is a paradox. A valuation of $2 billion seems reasonable on paper, but once real liquidity comes into play, the market will tell you what that expected value is based on actual transaction prices. I have seen too many projects with a huge gap between expected valuation and actual transaction prices on the first day when liquidity is scarce.

The recent popularity of Stable somewhat reflects the market's desire for new opportunities at the end of a bear market. However, desire is often the least reliable investment signal. What we need to look at is: the holder structure 48 hours after launch, trading depth, and the real locked amount—these will reveal the accuracy of this prediction.

History tells me that the higher the market expectation, the easier it is to overlook black swan events. Tomorrow's data will be very valuable for reference.