#预测市场 After looking at the recent bets related to Trump on Polymarket, I can't help but want to remind everyone: this is the trap scene I am most cautious about.

First, let's talk about the market for the UFO document—on the surface, it looks like one person is low buying and pushing the price up, but the truly frightening part is the six accounts behind it. These new accounts appeared simultaneously, swept the bottom simultaneously, and their position sizes are ridiculously consistent. This is not a coincidence; it's organized information arbitrage. They created a "smoke bomb" effect with the AARO website updates, causing the probability to soar from 5% to 71%. The goal is clear: to smash the "No" shares to the bottom to build positions at a low cost. This is a typical tactic of manipulators—using information asymmetry to create false expectations.

Looking at the market depth of the Epstein files, those three "10U War God" accounts are even more noteworthy. 0xtherealbatman, ohawaffle, VT2025, their position concentration exceeds 90%, and their average price is ridiculously low (26-44 cents). What does this indicate? They are very confident that "the files will not be made public according to the rules." But the problem is - the stricter the settlement rules of the prediction market, the easier it is for these people to manipulate public opinion to influence the final decision.

The core point I want to make is: prediction markets seem very democratic, but once organized funds and new accounts act collectively, it has already turned into a different game. Those price fluctuations that seem like "inside information" are ninety percent of the time carefully designed traps. If you want to survive here for a long time, the first rule is: when you see new accounts operating in the same direction collectively, immediately stay away and do not bet on that extremely unlikely direction.