# 预测市场

"Several Brain-Teasing Thoughts About #预测市场 "
1️⃣ Besides speculation, what is the positive value of market prediction?
The core function of the stock market is value discovery:
Through price mechanisms, allocate capital to higher-value companies.
And prediction markets do something else:
Truth excavation.
They are not pricing companies,
but pricing the "probability of an event occurring."
Who is closer to the facts, who makes money.
The ultimate goal is—
to make collective cognition approach the truth faster.
2️⃣ What is the relationship between prediction and truth?
In the stock market:
Pric

#预测市场 The prediction market is really about to take off! Gemini has received CFTC approval to operate DCM—what does this mean? It means the gates of traditional finance are officially opening to the on-chain world.
Imagine, prediction markets used to operate in gray areas, sneaking around, but now they can openly enter mainstream view. Gemini Titan is launching binary event contracts first—seemingly simple "Yes/No" options, but behind them lies the core logic of decentralized value discovery—everyone can participate, express opinions, and market prices automatically aggregate real information

#预测市场 Recently saw the news that Phantom has launched a prediction market, and some friends asked me whether I want to participate. It reminded me of many investors I have encountered before, who always get excited about high-yield opportunities but often overlook the underlying risks.
Prediction markets are essentially a form of gambling—you're guessing the outcome of future events. Predictions related to sports, crypto, and cultural events sound diverse and interesting, but that is precisely where the risk lies. Market predictions are inherently uncertain; no one can consistently beat the o

#预测市场 Seeing the recent movements in the prediction market, I need to calmly say a few words. Big platforms like Kalshi and Coinbase forming compliance alliances, with a market valuation of $28 billion, sound very tempting, but this is precisely the time when pitfalls are easy to fall into.
I've seen too many people dazzled by "new tracks." Prediction markets are essentially probability games. They seem to be 30% more accurate than traditional polls, but how is this data obtained? Who is collecting it? This is often the time to be extra cautious. Moreover, over 70% of Americans agree that "it

#预测市场 Seeing Phantom launch a prediction market, my first reaction isn't excitement but caution. Prediction markets sound sophisticated, but frankly, they are just a new form of gambling, only dressed up as "financial derivatives."
I've seen too many people attracted to these kinds of products. Sports, crypto, cultural predictions—these sound like low barriers to entry and easy participation, but in reality, they are classic setups for liquidity traps. The house always prefers this model—seemingly transparent and fair, but in fact, information asymmetry is off the charts. The information you

#预测市场 The approval of Gemini's DCM license is not just a sign of regulatory progress for a trading platform; it also signals that the old path of prediction markets is being reignited.
Back in 2020, Gemini submitted their application, but at that time, prediction markets were still a sensitive topic in the US. Over more than four years of waiting, the entire crypto ecosystem's understanding of compliance has deepened. Now that it’s approved, it to some extent indicates that both the market environment and regulatory attitudes have undergone substantial changes.
It reminds me of several key mo

#预测市场 I just took a quick look around the exchange and discovered the gensyn project. I heard they are launching both the AI token public sale and the prediction market Delphi simultaneously? 🤔
Honestly, I’m a bit confused about the concept of prediction markets. It feels like using data and models to forecast future trends? But with big institutions like a16z and Eden Block investing in gensyn (raising over $50 million), it sounds very professional.
Can any experts explain how prediction markets actually work? I feel like this could be a new way of playing in the future, but I need to under

#预测市场 Recently discovered something interesting — prediction markets! 🤔 I had no idea what this was all about until I saw gensyn's Delphi go live, and I started to understand a bit.
Basically, it's using cryptocurrencies to let people bet on and predict future events? It feels like turning collective wisdom into something tradable, which is a bit mind-bending but also super fun. Plus, gensyn has raised over $50 million, with big investors like a16z supporting it, so it seems like they're serious about this.
The most confusing part now is — how is this different from regular trading? Do you a

#预测市场 Seeing Gensyn, a project that has raised over $50 million and has just launched the Delphi prediction market, reminds me of a common investment trap—many people are easily attracted by high funding backgrounds and new concepts, but they overlook the most basic risk management.
The scale of funding indeed reflects market attention, but it is not an investment signal in itself. Prediction markets sound very sophisticated, but fundamentally they are still trading tools. We need to calmly consider a few questions: Do we truly understand how this product works? Can we withstand the volatilit

#预测市场 Seeing Kalshi, Crypto.com, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Underdog jointly establish a prediction market alliance, I felt a sense of familiarity. I’ve seen this kind of thing many times—when a sector truly moves toward regulation and multiple forces start to band together for survival, it often marks that the industry has passed its most savage growth phase.
Looking back, during the ICO boom of 2016, the chaos of the crypto world in 2017, and later the DeFi summer and NFT craze, each major wave had a common critical point—that shift from individual retail excitement to institutional players m