#预测市场 Seeing this study about manipulation in prediction markets, I have to be honest. I've seen this logic many times in the crypto world—using large sums to dump and create illusions, guiding retail investors to follow, then selling at high points. This time, it’s just shifted to political prediction markets, but the tactics are the same.

The most dangerous thing isn’t how easy manipulation itself is, but that **people’s minds are most easily manipulated**. For example, in 2024, a French investor pushed up Trump’s odds on Polymarket, and immediately someone shouted "foreign interference." After fact-checking, there was no real issue, but the panic had already spread. It’s like what we’ve seen in some projects—big buy orders rush in, media follow suit, retail investors blindly chase the high, and the final bagholders are people like you and me.

The key point mentioned in the information is worth noting: **markets with poor liquidity are the easiest to manipulate**. Small amounts of funds can cause waves, and no one can arbitrage quickly to bring the price back. This means that what appears to be "public opinion signals" might just be a wealthy individual playing with fire.

What’s even more heartbreaking is that phrase—"Even if manipulation fails, panic itself can destroy trust." After being active on-chain for so long, what we fear most is losing confidence in market information. Once you start doubting the authenticity of prices, the entire market’s pricing mechanism collapses.

So my straightforward advice is: **Don’t treat any single signal as gospel**. Prediction markets, polls, on-chain data—cross-verification is key to longevity. When you see abnormal fluctuations, don’t impulsively follow; first ask yourself—are these based on real expectations or someone is causing trouble? Caution is much more important than gains.