#预测市场 Large projects look glamorous on a weekly basis, but I need to sound the alarm behind the scenes. This round of new listings indeed presents opportunities, but it’s also the most trap-filled period.

Let’s start with the most eye-catching ones—Upheaval, Yield Basis, Tea, Limitless, Goated. On the surface, they boast funding backing, institutional support, and impressive trading volume data, but I’ve seen too many “good-looking projects” start to cut profits right after launch. The key is to look at a few points clearly:

**What does an oversubscription of 870% mean?** It indicates FOMO is running high, and it also means there are plenty of bagholders lining up. The Bonding Curve from $0.01 to $0.036 looks like a clever mechanism design, but in reality, it’s covering up early entrants’ huge profits. Are tokens allocated proportionally to oversubscription? Nice words, but in reality, big players eat the meat while small players drink the soup.

**Is backing by Curve’s founder really safe?** Take Yield Basis as an example: a $50 million valuation at the beginning of the year, now possibly worth billions in FDV. Such a valuation surge itself is a red flag. Plus, with former BitMEX founders acting as advisors and Kaito’s Capital Launchpad—these names sound impressive, but the prediction market itself is controversial. Being accused of “wash trading” and rushing to issue tokens—don’t they have any sense of risk?

**Stable cash flow ≠ token value.** Goated has 12,000 monthly active users and earns over $2 million a year, which looks good, but issuing tokens for GambleFi projects is a signal in itself—no demand for tokens but still issuing them to cut a round. I’m very familiar with this logic. An initial FDV of $88 million, expecting “significantly higher than the fundraising amount”? Who will take the final shot?

My advice: if you must participate, focus on two key indicators—**token unlock schedule and early holder lock-up periods**. The fact that Tea’s 100% TGE unlock is even called “possibly a scam” is not without reason. Whitelists are easy to get, FCFS mode, no restrictions—often indicating the project team has no confidence in its long-term value.

Those who truly understand risk prevention should be watching the show this week, not chasing money. The easiest targets for harvest during big project weeks are those who are blinded by FOMO and can’t tell whether it’s an opportunity or a trap. Living longer is more valuable than getting rich quickly; I’ve learned this lesson with money.