#预测市场 The probability of BTC surpassing 100,000 this year on Polymarket has dropped to 11%, a figure worth noting. In comparison, the forecasted probability of reaching 95,000 is 32%, and the probability of falling below 80,000 is 24%. The market's expectations are clearly being revised downward.

From on-chain fund movements, such probability adjustments usually reflect the actual actions of large investors—when whales start reducing their positions or adopting a wait-and-see approach, market consensus can change rapidly. Currently, the enthusiasm for hitting 10,000 by the end of the year is indeed cooling, with more traders locking in defensive positions rather than chasing higher prices.

The key is to observe the upcoming fund flows. If large buy orders continue to be absent, this 11% probability may further decline. Conversely, if a clear whale buying signal suddenly appears, the forecasted probability could rebound quickly. The data from prediction markets essentially result from participant betting, providing a quantitative risk reference, but should not be the sole basis for trading decisions.