#预测市场 When I saw the retention data of Polymarket, I wondered—why can prediction markets achieve over 85% retention, while most DeFi projects can only survive through subsidies?

After carefully reading Coinbase CEO's statement, I realized that the key difference lies in the underlying logic of prediction markets. They are not sustained by FOMO and hype, but are genuinely driven by real events. Elections, sports events, macroeconomic data—these are continuous market pulses. Users come here not to gamble on token prices, but to verify their judgments with real money. Telling the truth can make money, lying will cost you—this economic incentive is more powerful than any subsidy.

This reminds me of traditional pump-and-dump schemes—false prosperity, unlimited financing, ending in chaos. The high retention rate of prediction markets precisely indicates that truly sustainable projects never rely on illusions but address real needs. The involvement of major institutions is also interesting; Coinbase, Gemini, Phantom are all entering the space, which shows they see a fundamental truth: the next critical battleground will be applications built on a solid foundation of reality.

Want to survive long on the chain? Find projects with real use cases—far more reliable than chasing the latest trends.