As of 2026-01-04 15:40 (Golden Ten Data standard), today's crypto market is leaning towards bearish signals, with decreased volume, cautious institutions, and macro divergences suppressing risk appetite. The only remaining bullish factors are structural and long-term supports, which are unlikely to offset short-term pressures.

Core assessment basis (Golden Ten Data + related indicators)

- Macro and institutions: The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations fluctuate; Fed Chair Powell's statement that "rate cuts will not be implemented immediately" suggests the window may be delayed until mid-year; Standard Chartered lowered BTC's 2026 target to 150,000 (previously 300,000); ETF net outflows have exceeded $2.1 billion for four consecutive weeks, indicating short-term institutional bearishness.
- Volume and sentiment: BTC intra-day volume shrank while prices rose, with daily trading volume around $66.7 million, down approximately 91% from previous peaks; crypto derivatives risk index is 61 (high risk), greed and fear index is 26 (fear), leverage accumulation combined with low sentiment increases the risk of a stampede.
- On-chain and technical: BTC daily MACD red bars are shortening, with a death cross risk on the weekly chart; altcoins like PEPE show four-hour bearish divergence, volume contraction, and quick pullbacks, indicating short-term correction signals.
- Structural bullish factors: Long-term holders (LTH) are re-accumulating, spot supply is decreasing; regulatory hearings and innovation exemption windows are approaching but are unlikely to be implemented in the short term, making it difficult to change the current weak pattern.

Key bullish and bearish factors (Golden Ten standard)

- Bullish: LTH re-accumulation, spot selling pressure easing; regulatory window opening in January; some institutions still target 105,000+.
- Bearish: Divergences in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, slow pace; ETF continuous net outflows; institutions lowering targets; low liquidity, volume shrinkage prone to false breakouts.

Trading guidance (short-selling perspective)

- Trigger: BTC daily close below 87,500, weekly death cross confirmed, initiate partial short positions with stop-loss above 93,000; PEPE four-hour break below 0.0000012 to short, stop-loss at 0.00000135.
- Risk control: Use small positions (≤5%), exit if volume breaks resistance with a breakout.