Market Outlook 2026: Gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Major Indices Poised for Significant Moves — Here's What Top Wall Street Banks Are Forecasting

2025 proved to be a transformative year across global markets. As we transition into 2026, what should investors expect from commodities, digital assets, equities, and currency pairs? Major financial institutions are already laying out their forecasts — and the predictions are remarkably diverse.

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver to Lead Commodity Rally

Gold’s Decade-Defining Run

Gold delivered an extraordinary 2025, climbing 60% and posting its strongest annual performance since 1979. The tailwinds are well-known: Federal Reserve rate cuts, persistent central bank accumulation, and unrelenting geopolitical uncertainty all fueled demand.

The World Gold Council expects the momentum to persist into 2026. In a base case scenario, prices could advance 5%–15%, with potential for 15%–30% gains if economic headwinds force aggressive Fed easing. Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900/oz by year-end 2026, citing robust central bank purchases and ETF inflows. Bank of America paints an even rosier picture, projecting USD 5,000/oz on the back of expanding fiscal deficits and deteriorating U.S. debt dynamics.

Silver’s Supply Squeeze

Silver’s 2025 outperformance versus gold reflects a structural imbalance that’s only widening. The Silver Institute warns of a persistent supply deficit driven by strong industrial consumption, recovering investment appetite, and slowing production growth. This mismatch is expected to intensify in 2026, providing ongoing support for prices.

UBS raised its 2026 silver price target to USD 58–60/oz, with upside reaching USD 65/oz in more bullish scenarios. Bank of America aligns with this view, also forecasting USD 65/oz.

Digital Assets: Bitcoin and Ethereum Navigate Shifting Cycles

Bitcoin at a Crossroads

Bitcoin traded near flat in 2025 after hitting historical highs mid-year. As of early January 2026, the world’s largest cryptocurrency trades around USD 91.57K, up 1.95% over 24 hours. Standard Chartered downgraded its price target to USD 150,000 for 2026, citing anticipated reductions in government crypto treasury purchases, though institutional ETF buying should remain supportive. Bernstein takes a longer view, forecasting USD 150,000 in 2026 and USD 200,000 in 2027, arguing that Bitcoin has abandoned its traditional four-year cycle for an extended bull phase.

Morgan Stanley dissents, warning that the four-year cycle remains intact and that the bull market is approaching its conclusion.

Ethereum’s Tokenization Catalyst

Ethereum also finished 2025 roughly flat, though volatility exceeded Bitcoin’s. Current price sits around USD 3.15K, up 1.39% daily. Yet optimism is building around the network’s potential. JPMorgan highlights the transformative power of tokenization — a trend that depends heavily on Ethereum’s infrastructure. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMain, goes further, declaring that Ethereum bottomed in 2025 and forecasting a price of USD 20,000 as tokenization reshapes the next crypto supercycle.

U.S. Equities: Tech-Driven Momentum to Continue

The Nasdaq 100 surged 22% in 2025, eclipsing the S&P 500’s 18% gain — marking the third consecutive year of outperformance. Momentum is expected to carry forward on the strength of artificial intelligence investment.

JPMorgan emphasizes that hyperscale data centre operators — Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta — will maintain elevated capital expenditures over coming years, with cumulative spending potentially reaching several hundred billion dollars through 2026. This should bolster semiconductor leaders like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

JPMorgan projects upside scenarios where the S&P 500 approaches 7,500 by year-end 2026. Deutsche Bank is more bullish, pointing toward 8,000 in optimistic cases supported by strong earnings and continued AI-driven outlays. Based on these S&P 500 targets, the Nasdaq 100 could exceed 27,000 points in 2026, analysts calculate.

Currency Markets: Dollar Weakness Reshapes FX Landscape

EUR/USD: Heading Higher on Rate Divergence

EUR/USD rallied 13% in 2025 — its largest annual gain in nearly eight years — as the dollar weakened. Most forecasters expect further appreciation in 2026 as the Fed cuts rates while the European Central Bank holds steady.

JPMorgan and Nomura project EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by year-end. Bank of America is more constructive, targeting 1.22. Morgan Stanley, however, warns of potential reversal in the second half of 2026 if U.S. economic data surprises to the upside, forecasting an initial rise to 1.23 followed by a retreat to 1.16 in H2 2026.

USD/JPY: Divergent Views Reflect Policy Uncertainty

USD/JPY finished 2025 down roughly 1%. Forecasts for 2026 are sharply split. JPMorgan and Barclays are constructive, with JPMorgan expecting USD/JPY to rise to 164 by year-end as Bank of Japan rate hike expectations are already priced in and Japanese fiscal expansion weighs on the yen. Converting this to equivalent yen-to-USD terms illustrates the magnitude of potential currency repricing for international investors.

Nomura and Citigroup dissent. Nomura argues that narrowing interest rate differentials will reduce yen carry trade attractiveness. If U.S. macro data deteriorates, investors may unwind positions, triggering yen strength. Nomura projects USD/JPY falling to 140 before 2026 closes.

Energy: Oil Under Pressure from OPEC+ and Demand Concerns

Crude oil slumped nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ restored production and U.S. output climbed. 2026 may bring additional headwinds if oversupply risks materialize.

Goldman Sachs outlines a bearish scenario where WTI crude averages USD 52/barrel and Brent USD 56/barrel in 2026. JPMorgan similarly highlights downside cases with WTI near USD 54/barrel and Brent around USD 58/barrel if supply surpluses persist.

The Bottom Line

The 2026 outlook is decidedly mixed. Precious metals and digital assets carry upside potential, U.S. equities appear supported by AI investment, and currency markets are pricing in monetary divergence. Yet energy and some forex pairs face downward pressure. Investors should monitor central bank actions, geopolitical developments, and macro data closely — these will ultimately determine whether forecasts hold or market surprises emerge.