Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, assessing 'rebound potential' amid correction trend: re-evaluating key technical levels

Last week’s sharp decline has led to divergent movements among the three major coins. The market now stands at a crossroads, questioning whether it can break out of the short-term correction phase or if further declines will occur. The key variables that will determine the future direction are the strength of spot buyers and whether technical support levels are defended.

Bitcoin: Defending $90,000 is Critical, “Short-term Further Drop vs Technical Recovery”

Bitcoin(BTC) has experienced high volatility since early this week. It tested the $90,000 level multiple times and rebounded to $91,140, but remains unstable.

From the recent low of $74,508(April 7) to the all-time high of $126,299(October 6), the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $94,253 has served as an important resistance. Currently closing below this zone, market participants are divided:

• Short-term traders: View a breakdown below $90,000 as a trigger for strong stop-loss pressure
• Long-term holders: Consider it a “price range where re-entry is sufficiently possible in this cycle”

The daily RSI hovering near 30 indicates that the oversold momentum is gradually waning. This suggests that the decline is less driven by strong selling pressure and more by profit-taking from existing short positions.

If multiple daily candles form below $90,000, there is a possibility of a “bottoming process” toward the next key support at $85,000. At this point, the entry of medium- to long-term spot buyers will determine the market’s future direction.

Ethereum: Successful Defense of $3,017 Support, Signs of Rebound

Ethereum(ETH) has recovered to $3,118, showing relatively positive signals. The current price is trading around $3,140.

Compared to the approximately 14% decline after the breakdown of the $3,592 trendline last week, the successful rebound after testing the $3,017 support this week suggests that the correction phase may be nearing its end.

From a technical perspective:

• Maintaining above $3,017: Increases the likelihood of retesting the $3,592 resistance
• Breaking below $3,017: Risks further decline toward $2,749

Notably, the “break-even psychology” of buyers who were stopped out during the previous rally is concentrated around $3,592. This area is also likely to be a zone of conflict between sellers and new buyers.

The RSI is recovering from oversold territory, indicating that the selling pressure is easing beyond just a technical correction and aggressive selling forces are diminishing. Currently, remaining sell-side activity is mainly driven by latecomers following the trend.

Ripple: RSI 41, Still Weak Uptrend, “Technical Retracement” in Play

Ripple(XRP) declined to $2.10 and is now consolidating around $2.20. After about a 7% correction from the 50-day EMA at $2.47 last week, this week shows signs of recovery.

XRP’s current situation is a “neutral zone, neither trend reversal nor worst-case scenario”:

• Technically: Waiting for direction between the daily support at $1.96 and the 50-day EMA at $2.47
• Psychologically: Short-term shorts find “additional attack burdensome but no reason to fully withdraw”
• Buyers: “The risk of further deterioration has decreased, but confirmation is needed for a genuine rebound”

The daily RSI at 41 is below the neutral 50, indicating that selling momentum has weakened but buying dominance is not yet established. A clear breakout above 50 would be needed for this to shift from a “simple technical rebound” to a “trend reversal candidate.”

If the correction resumes and prices fall back to $1.96, the current short-term and swing buy positions around $2.20 could face renewed pressure. In this zone, the patience of short-term traders will be a key factor influencing the market more than long-term holders.

Overall Assessment: “Correction Strength Weakening, but Direction Still Unclear”

All three coins show signs of exiting excessive short-term corrections. However, a full-fledged rebound depends on breaking through key technical resistance levels. The additional buying by spot holders and the scale of leveraged short liquidations will be critical in determining the next phase.