BTC against the US dollar surpasses 91K, but the bulls' expectation to break through 90,000 USD has fallen short

Entering the first trading week of 2026, BTC against the US dollar opens the new year. The latest data shows Bitcoin is currently priced at $91,220, with a 24-hour increase of 1.35%, hitting a recent high of $91,810. However, behind this rally is a picture of the market’s rapid fading enthusiasm for breaking through the $90,000 threshold — the previous trading day saw multiple attempts to reach this integer level, all ending in failure.

High-Level Tug-of-War: Passive Rise Amid Liquidity Exhaustion

The market’s main feature at present is the subdued trading activity during the year-end holiday period. Amid severely limited trading volume, BTC against USD has been oscillating between $89,920 and $91,810, but each time it approaches key psychological levels, it shows signs of exhaustion. This “quick rise and fall” pattern reflects a market participation that is far below expectations.

Institutional analysis indicates a major turning point in market structure has occurred. After a record-breaking options expiration last week, open interest has shrunk by nearly 50%, suggesting many traders are choosing to exit and wait after risk events. The hedging logic of market makers has also shifted — from the previous “long gamma” state that could amplify upward momentum to a “short gamma on the upside” pattern. This means that as prices rise, market makers need to sell spot to hedge risk, creating an invisible suppression.

Continuous Institutional Accumulation vs Overall Capital Outflows

Interestingly, there is a clear divergence in the flow of funds between institutional investors and retail investors. A publicly listed company invested $108.8 million to buy 1,229 BTC in one week in late December, with an average cost of $88,568, demonstrating strong confidence in medium-term value. But from a macro perspective, digital asset investment products saw a total net outflow of $446 million last week, with Bitcoin products accounting for $443 million of that outflow, indicating that passive exits have overshadowed institutional accumulation signals.

Contrasting with the deteriorating liquidity of BTC against USD, some tokens have shown relative strength — XRP and Solana-related products experienced net inflows during the same period, suggesting investors are selectively allocating rather than fully increasing their crypto holdings.

FOMC Minutes as a Key Variable

Short-term market direction has become highly uncertain, with many traders turning their attention to the FOMC meeting minutes released on Tuesday. Expectations for rate cuts in 2026 are rapidly adjusting, and macroeconomic uncertainty remains the fundamental driver of this BTC against USD volatility. US bank wealth management officials state that in a low-volume environment, “the market is experiencing a technical reversal,” further validating the liquidity crunch at year-end.

Critical Technical Support Levels

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains within an expanding wedge pattern. Although downside momentum shows signs of weakening, breaking through remains challenging. Bulls need to first break above the key resistance at $91,400, then establish themselves above $94,000 to regain control. Successfully surpassing $94,000 could open further upside channels toward $101,000 to $108,000.

Conversely, $84,000 becomes the downside floor — if lost, BTC against USD could quickly test lows around $72,000 or even $68,000.

Bullish Narrative Still Persists, but Consensus Is Questionable

Looking ahead to 2026, the divergence in long-term Bitcoin outlooks has become a true reflection of the market. Among the bullish camp, some institutions expect Bitcoin to reach $500,000 around 2030, while others give more aggressive ten-year targets of $1.3 million. These expectations are based on continuous ETF buying, corporate accumulation, and Bitcoin gradually becoming “digital gold.”

However, bearish voices also exist — analysts believe that within a “resource-constrained” global asset allocation framework, Bitcoin needs to compete for capital with hot sectors like AI and precious metals. The 2025 gold rally of 60% and silver doubling in value have already demonstrated the “volatility” of risk capital, and asset rotation often occurs faster than expected.

Follow-Up Focus

In the short term, liquidity exhaustion during the holiday period is expected to persist, and large options expirations near $100,000 may continue to disturb market pricing. Whether BTC against USD can effectively break through $91,400 and challenge $94,000 will be a key signal for confirming the sustainability of the rebound.

On the macro front, factors such as the Fed’s policy path, year-end financing pressures spilling over into risk assets, and capital competition between precious metals and cryptocurrencies will have profound impacts on short- to medium-term trends. Market participants warn that investor sentiment may shift rapidly — if economic resilience persists and liquidity improves, the probability of risk assets breaking upward increases; otherwise, deeper pullbacks are likely.