Soybean Futures Face Pre-Holiday Pressure as Traders Book Year-End Losses

The soybean complex is entering the final trading sessions of the year with notable weakness, as investors liquidate positions ahead of New Year’s Eve. January futures contracts have declined 3 to 4 cents from recent levels, with Tuesday’s session showing fractional losses extending into Wednesday’s trading. The broader market momentum suggests profit-taking is dominating as open interest fell 16,065 contracts, predominantly concentrated in the January delivery series.

Cash Market and Derivative Pressure Mount

The cmdtyView national average for cash soybeans is tracking 3/4 cent lower, settling near $9.80 as commercial buyers remain cautious. Supporting products showed mixed signals: soy meal futures posted steady to modest declines of $2.10/ton, while soy oil demonstrated relative strength with gains of 7 to 15 points on the session. Delivery activity has been moderate, with 1,062 contracts issued against January beans on First Notice Day, though soy meal saw zero deliveries and only 7 issues for the January oil contract.

USDA Data and Export Expectations Shape Near-Term Outlook

This morning’s USDA weekly export report for the week ending December 18 will provide critical direction, with analysts anticipating soybean sales between 1.4 to 2.4 million metric tons. Meal export expectations range from 200,000 to 500,000 MT, while soy oil is projected between 0 to 24,000 MT. Adding pressure to the complex, ANEC estimates Brazilian soybean exports have declined to 3.02 MMT—representing a 0.55 MMT drop compared to the same period last year, signaling tighter regional supply.

Contract-Specific Pricing Breakdown

Across the futures curve, the weakness is evident: January 26 soybeans ended at $10.46 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents with additional declines pushing current levels to 4 cents lower. March 26 contracts closed at $10.62 1/4, off 1 1/4 cents with current action accelerating losses to 3 1/4 cents down. May 26 soybeans settled at $10.74 1/2, down 3/4 cent on the session and currently tracking 3 cents lower. Nearby cash positions remain under pressure at $9.80, down 3/4 cent on the day.

Holiday Schedule and Friday’s Restart

Markets will observe a full closure on Thursday for New Year’s Day, with a hard open scheduled for 8:30 AM CST on Friday as the complex prepares for a potential year-end reversal or continuation of current selling pressure.