Lighter's Listing Valuation Sparks Trading Frenzy on Polymarket—83% Bet Cap Will Hit $20B Milestone

Prediction markets are heating up around Lighter’s highly anticipated debut. According to data tracked on Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform is seeing significant wagering activity on where the exchange’s market cap will land post-launch.

The most likely scenario? Market participants are signaling strong confidence in a substantial opening valuation. Polymarket odds reveal an 87% probability that Lighter’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) climbs above $10 billion on day one—a baseline that demonstrates broad bullish sentiment. But that’s just the floor.

Zooming in on the cap predictions, the momentum intensifies. There’s an 83% probability that Lighter’s market cap surges past the $20 billion level upon listing, suggesting traders are pricing in meaningful adoption and exchange momentum from day one. This reflects considerable optimism around the project’s competitive positioning and user demand.

However, not all bets are equally confident. The probability of Lighter hitting a $30 billion valuation stands at 52%—notably lower than the prior thresholds. This represents the true bull case among predictors, where approximately half the market believes the exchange can achieve mega-cap status immediately.

What does this tell us? The prediction market consensus suggests Lighter will command a substantial valuation on launch, with most participants seeing $10-20 billion as the realistic range and only the most aggressive traders betting on $30 billion territory. It’s a snapshot of how the broader crypto community is positioning itself ahead of one of the exchange space’s biggest recent debuts.