Crypto Market Splits Over 2026 Altseason Prospects: What Data Really Shows

The cryptocurrency community remains sharply divided on whether a major altseason could materialize in 2026. Market observers point to a striking absence of peak conditions throughout 2025, creating a fundamental disagreement about the market’s trajectory.

On the pessimistic side, skeptics argue that Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak at $126,000 may have already signaled the exhaustion of this cycle’s momentum. They suggest the primary bull run has completed its course and a prolonged correction phase could follow.

However, prominent figures like Raoul Pal paint a contrasting picture. Bullish voices contend that Bitcoin’s current dynamics support a 5-year supercycle thesis—meaning the bull market has runway extending well into 2026. Under this scenario, altseason would likely ignite during the first half of 2026, with cryptocurrencies outside Bitcoin experiencing substantial appreciation.

Technical and Macroeconomic Tailwinds

The technical foundation for optimism rests on several indicators. RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are displaying patterns that historically precede sustained rallies. Simultaneously, macroeconomic conditions appear supportive: persistently low inflation readings and central bank signals suggesting potential quantitative easing programs are creating an environment typically favorable for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

The Timing Question

The core uncertainty revolves around when—or if—this altseason episode unfolds. The 2025 period showed no conclusive altseason signals, leaving analysts searching for clearer entry points. Those betting on a 2026 surge argue that the delay simply extends the inevitable upside, while skeptics view the quiet period as evidence the cycle may have already peaked.

The market awaits clearer confirmation from on-chain metrics and price action to resolve this debate.