Silver hits a new high, institutions generally optimistic about the outlook before 2026

On November 28, the COMEX silver futures price in New York broke the historical high of $54.65 per ounce, and the spot market was not far behind, rising to around $54.22 per ounce. More notably, since early 2025, silver has gained 87%, far surpassing gold’s 57% performance in the same period, making it the most dazzling star in the precious metals market.

Supply and demand imbalance and central bank policies exerting pressure, making silver’s rally unstoppable

The sharp rise in silver prices is driven by two converging forces.

First is the long-term supply imbalance. Silver has been in a state of persistent supply shortage for years. Anticipated US tariff policies have boosted market enthusiasm for rushing silver to the New York Exchange, leading to accelerated depletion of inventories at other global trading centers. This tight inventory situation has triggered the activation of arbitrage mechanisms and may even pose a risk of forced liquidation. Currently, the COMEX silver 2512 contract has officially entered the delivery notice period, and market volatility could further increase.

Second is the rising expectation of a shift in monetary policy. Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials lean dovish, and market expectations for rate cuts continue to rise. Data shows that the market assigns an 85% probability to a 25 basis point rate cut in December. Driven by these easing expectations, most precious metals, including silver and platinum, are rising collectively, with gold approaching the $4200 mark.

Silver still has prospects in 2026, with multiple institutions supporting

Looking ahead, the industry remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for silver.

Michael DiRienzo, Executive Director of the Silver Institute, stated that based on current trends, structural supply gaps are likely to continue into 2026. Deutsche Bank further predicts that the silver market will remain in deficit next year, estimating an average annual price of $55 per ounce, and expects holdings of silver ETFs to surpass the all-time high in 2021.

Goldman Sachs’s view is even clearer. The bank believes that under the dual influence of the Federal Reserve’s continued easing cycle and the trend of diversified asset allocation, institutional and private investors will regard silver and palladium as complementary assets to gold. The upward trend of precious metals like silver remains robust.