Gold prices have surged 120 times in half a century | Can the next 50 years of gold bull run continue?

Why Is Gold Worth Paying Attention To?

Gold has been a symbol of wealth since ancient times. It is dense, highly ductile, and easy to store, making it suitable as a medium of exchange, jewelry, or industrial raw material. Over the past half-century, although gold prices have fluctuated, the overall trend has been steadily upward, especially with multiple record highs in 2025. So, will this 50-year-long gold bull market make a comeback in the next 50 years? How should we judge the gold price? Is it more suitable for long-term allocation or short-term trading? This article will answer these questions one by one.

The Transformation of Gold Prices Over Half a Century: From $35 to $4,300

Why start counting from 1971?

August 15, 1971, marks a watershed moment in international financial history. U.S. President Nixon announced the detachment of the dollar from gold, officially ending the Bretton Woods system. Before that, the dollar was a gold exchange certificate, fixed at 35 USD per ounce of gold. After the detachment, the dollar floated freely, and gold prices began a dramatic rise.

From 1971 to now, gold prices have soared from $35 per ounce to $4,300 in October 2025, a cumulative increase of over 120 times. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose from 900 points to 46,000 points, an increase of about 51 times. From this perspective, gold’s long-term return even slightly outperforms the stock market.

Over the past 50 years, gold has experienced four major market cycles

First wave (1970-1975): Confidence crisis after detachment

After the detachment announcement, trust in the dollar declined. People preferred to hoard gold rather than hold dollars, pushing gold prices from $35 to $183, an increase of over 400%. Subsequently, the oil crisis erupted, and the U.S. increased money supply to buy oil, further boosting gold prices. Once the crisis eased, people gradually recognized the convenience of the dollar, and gold prices fell back to around $100.

Second wave (1976-1980): Geopolitical shocks

Gold prices surged from $104 to $850, an increase of over 700%, over about three years. This rally was driven by major geopolitical events such as the second Middle East oil crisis, the Iran hostage crisis, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, leading to global recession and soaring inflation in the West. However, gold was overbought, and after the crises subsided and the Soviet Union dissolved, prices quickly retreated. For the next 20 years, gold fluctuated in the $200-$300 range.

Third wave (2001-2011): Anti-terror wars and financial crisis

The “9/11 attacks” prompted a reassessment of war risks worldwide. The U.S. launched a decade of anti-terror military operations, with huge military spending prompting rate cuts and debt issuance. Loose monetary policy inflated housing prices, culminating in the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed implemented QE to rescue the economy, pushing gold from $260 to $1,921, an increase of over 700%. The European debt crisis also drove gold to new highs, followed by consolidation.

Fourth wave (2015-present): Central bank accumulation and safe-haven demand

This cycle has been driven by multiple factors: negative interest rates in Japan and Europe, global de-dollarization, Fed QE, the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts, etc. Gold prices steadily climbed from $1,060, reaching a record high in 2024, with the first breakthrough of $4,300 in October. The total increase in 2024 exceeded 104%, and since the start of 2025, the rise has surpassed 56%.

Is Gold Worth Investing In? Comparing Gold Prices 10 Years Ago and Now

Evaluating gold investment depends on what it is compared to and the time frame.

From 1971 to 2025, over 54 years, gold’s 120-fold increase slightly outperforms the stock market’s 51-fold rise. But if we look at the past 30 years, stock returns have been higher, with gold ranking second.

The key issue is: Gold prices do not rise continuously. Ten years ago (2015), gold was about $1,060, and now it’s over $4,300, a roughly 305% increase over a decade. However, during 1980-2000, gold hovered around $200-$300 without significant gains, meaning investors saw no returns. How many 50-year periods do we have in life to wait?

Therefore, gold is a good investment tool, but more suitable for entering and exiting during market swings rather than purely holding long-term.

Additionally, as a natural resource, the costs and difficulty of mining increase over time. Even if a bull market ends, prices at the lows will gradually rise. Investors need not fear declines; the key is to understand this规律.

Five Ways to Invest in Gold

1. Physical Gold

Buy gold bars directly. Advantages include asset concealment and the ability to wear jewelry. Disadvantages are inconvenience in trading.

2. Gold Certificates

Similar to gold custody receipts, convenient to carry but banks do not pay interest. Wide bid-ask spreads make it suitable only for long-term investment.

3. Gold ETFs

More liquid than certificates, easier to trade, but issuers charge management fees. If prices stagnate, value may slowly decline.

4. Gold Futures and Contracts(CFD)

Common tools for retail investors, with leverage amplification. Both long and short positions are possible. Margin trading costs are low, especially suitable for swing trading. Compared to futures, CFDs are more flexible, with higher capital efficiency and lower barriers, making them more suitable for small investors and retail traders.

5. Gold Funds

Indirectly hold gold through funds, diversifying risk but incurring management fees.

Gold vs Stocks vs Bonds: Analysis of Investment Difficulty and Return

The three major assets have different sources of returns:

• Gold: Returns come from “price difference”, no interest, key is timing of entry and exit
• Bonds: Returns come from “coupon payments”, requiring continuous increase in holdings and judgment of central bank policies
• Stocks: Returns come from “corporate growth”, focusing on selecting quality companies for long-term holding

In terms of investment difficulty: Bonds > Gold > Stocks

In terms of recent 30-year returns: Stocks highest > Gold second > Bonds lowest

When Should Gold Be Included in Asset Allocation?

During economic growth, corporate profits are optimistic, capital flows into stocks, and bonds and gold tend to lose favor (gold has no yield). During recessions, corporate profits decline, and capital shifts to gold as a safe haven and bonds for fixed income.

The basic rule is: Prioritize stocks during growth periods, add gold during recessions.

A more prudent approach is to adjust the proportions of stocks, bonds, and gold dynamically based on personal risk tolerance and investment goals. Facing volatile markets and unpredictable events (such as Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, rate hikes), holding diversified assets can effectively hedge risks and make the portfolio more resilient.

Can the Gold Bull Continue for the Next 50 Years?

Looking at historical gold prices, each bull run was triggered by specific events—geopolitical tensions, economic policies, or currency crises. Current global situations remain uncertain, with central banks increasing gold holdings, the dollar weakening, and geopolitical risks intensifying.

But history also shows there are no eternal bull markets. The key is to actively participate during bull phases and adapt flexibly during bear markets, capturing trends rather than blindly holding long-term. For gold investors, good risk management, setting reasonable stop-losses, and integrating overall asset allocation are the keys to long-term steady profits.