Oil in 2025: Is black gold still a good investment?

Oil remains a strategic asset in the global economy despite the push for energy transition. With the transformations of 2025, understanding market dynamics is essential for any investor considering how to invest in oil intelligently. This guide analyzes opportunities, risks, and the best strategies for this year.

The complexity of the oil market

The oil market is an intricate ecosystem driven by multiple agents. Producers like Petrobras explore and extract the resource; refineries convert crude oil into derivatives; distributors deliver final products to consumers; and financial operators trade derivative instruments. This layered structure creates diversified opportunities for those seeking exposure to the sector.

Investing in oil generally occurs through two main paths: acquiring shares of sector companies or trading financial contracts linked to the barrel price. Each approach offers different levels of risk and potential gains.

Price trajectory: two decades of volatility

The last 20 years show why oil is considered one of the most dynamic assets in the market:

2000-2008: The Brent barrel rose from US$ 25 to over US$ 147, driven by accelerated Asian demand and the global financial crisis that amplified speculation.

2014-2016: Excess supply caused prices to plummet from US$ 100 to below US$ 30, creating opportunities for contrarian investors.

2020: The pandemic year recorded something unprecedented: negative prices. Excess supply and demand collapse generated dynamics never seen before in commodity markets.

2021-2023: Rapid recovery with prices reaching US$ 100+ again, fueled by pent-up demand and geopolitical uncertainties such as the Ukrainian conflict.

2024-2025: Stabilization between US$ 85-95, reflecting: Chinese industrial rebound after stimulus measures, OPEC+ production cuts (reduction of 2 million barrels/day), and European Union carbon policies discouraging new exploration investments.

Why consider oil in your portfolio?

There are solid arguments for maintaining exposure to the sector:

Volatility as opportunity: Significant fluctuations create windows for substantial profits, provided the investor analyzes trends and acts quickly.

Efficient diversification: Oil shows a different correlation than stocks and real estate, helping to reduce overall portfolio risk.

Resilient demand: Aviation, petrochemicals, heavy transportation, and chemical industries fundamentally depend on crude oil and derivatives. The energy transition is gradual, not immediate.

Inflation hedge: As a commodity, oil tends to track inflation, protecting purchasing power during monetary devaluation.

Sector innovation: Giants like Petrobras and Shell invest in biofuels, CO₂ capture, and low-carbon technologies, attracting ESG funds and demonstrating sector evolution.

Practical ways to invest in oil

Direct shares of oil giants

Buying shares of established producers offers relative safety and dividends:

• Petrobras (PETR3, PETR4): Brazil’s largest producer, offering liquidity and consolidated market exposure
• ExxonMobil (XOM): American giant with global operations and a solid track record
• Chevron (CVX): International diversification focused on exploration and production

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs)

ETFs allow sector exposure at lower cost:

• XOP: Focused on exploration and production companies
• OIH: Segment of drilling, maintenance, and supplies (services)

Futures contracts

Advanced instrument for speculating on future prices. High risk, requires experience and strict capital management.

CFDs (Contracts for Difference)

Allows betting on price increases or decreases with leverage. Offers flexibility but demands strict discipline in stop-loss and position management.

Indicators to monitor in 2025

Knowing how to invest in oil is not enough; it’s crucial to follow factors that move prices:

OPEC+ schedule: Upcoming production cuts expected for October/2025 tend to support prices.

Chinese economic indicators: GDP, industrial production, and energy consumption signal global demand.

Climate regulations: Decisions at conferences like COP30 impact exploration licenses and future investments.

Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts in the Middle East, sanctions, and energy alliances cause volatility spikes.

Risks to consider

Although promising, investing in oil carries challenges:

• Climate agreements may reduce exploration licenses
• Geopolitical instability causes sudden uncertainty
• Energy transition pressures long-term demand
• Extreme volatility can lead to rapid losses without proper management

Is now the time?

The answer depends on your profile. For volatility-tolerant investors, 2025 offers opportunities. Price stabilization between US$ 85-95, combined with resilient demand and carbon policies creating friction in production, suggests interesting windows.

Final recommendation: Combine fundamental analysis (demand, supply, geopolitics) with rigorous risk management. Oil will not disappear from the global economy in 2025 or the next decade, but investing requires ongoing attention to market dynamics.