Mapping 2026: Where Will Major Assets Move as Central Banks Recalibrate?

The 2025 markets delivered outsized moves across commodities, crypto, and currencies—but what should investors anticipate as we enter 2026? Leading global institutions have released their outlooks, revealing consensus themes alongside notable divergences. Here’s what the consensus and outliers tell us.

The Precious Metals Rally Continues—With a Twist

Gold’s next chapter remains firmly bullish. The World Gold Council projects further upside after 2025’s remarkable 60% surge (the largest annual gain since 1979). The tailwinds haven’t faded: central banks continue accumulating reserves, geopolitical tensions persist, and the Fed is expected to cut rates further. Most major banks cluster their 2026 year-end price targets between $4,500 and $5,000 per ounce. Goldman Sachs specifically forecasts $4,900/oz, while Bank of America takes a more optimistic stance at $5,000/oz, arguing that expanding U.S. fiscal deficits will keep the yellow metal supported. In tail-risk scenarios involving aggressive Fed easing and slower growth, gold could even breach $5,000 earlier.

Silver, however, may outperform gold. The Silver Institute warns of a structural supply deficit—industrial demand remains robust, investment interest has revived, and mining output growth has stalled. This supply-demand mismatch is expected to widen throughout 2026. UBS has lifted its silver target to $58–60/oz, with upside to $65/oz possible. Bank of America similarly projects silver reaching $65/oz. For traders watching the gold-to-silver ratio compression, silver’s relative strength could continue.

Cryptocurrency: A Split Between Optimism and Caution

Bitcoin faces consensus skepticism on near-term targets. Standard Chartered slashed its Bitcoin price forecast from $200,000 to $150,000, assuming reduced corporate treasury purchases and relying primarily on ETF inflows for support. Bernstein aligns with the $150,000 target for 2026, though it projects a path to $200,000 in 2027, arguing Bitcoin has broken free from its traditional four-year cycle and entered an elongated bull phase. Morgan Stanley, however, remains a contrarian voice, insisting the four-year cycle persists and warning that the current bull run is approaching exhaustion.

Current data shows Bitcoin trading at $93.96K with an ATH of $126.08K reached in 2025—suggesting more room exists between current levels and institutional targets.

Ethereum presents a more optimistic backdrop. JPMorgan emphasizes the tokenization megatrend as a structural tailwind for blockchain infrastructure, with Ethereum positioned as the core protocol. Tom Lee, leadership at a major Bitcoin mining entity, projects Ethereum could reach $20,000 by end-2026, arguing that Ethereum bottomed in 2025. With Ethereum currently at $3.29K and showing recent momentum (+3.61% over 24 hours), institutions see substantial upside if tokenization accelerates.

Equities: The AI Investment Cycle Rolls On

Nasdaq 100 strength is broadly expected to persist. The index gained 22% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% return for the third consecutive year. The driver remains clear: hyperscale data center operators (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) are locked into multi-year capex cycles totaling several hundred billion dollars. JPMorgan projects the S&P 500 could approach 7,500 by end-2026 in base cases, while Deutsche Bank’s more aggressive scenarios point toward 8,000. Extrapolating these targets, Nasdaq 100 could surpass 27,000 points—a meaningful but measured climb from 2025 levels.

Currencies: Divergence Across Major Pairs

EUR/USD faces a divergent narrative. The pair rallied 13% in 2025—its largest yearly gain in nearly eight years—on Fed rate-cut expectations and euro resilience. For 2026, most institutions expect further appreciation toward 1.20–1.22 as monetary policy divergence (Fed easing vs. ECB stability) widens. JPMorgan and Nomura target 1.20, while Bank of America pushes to 1.22. Morgan Stanley, however, warns of a H2 2026 reversal: it forecasts EUR/USD to initially rally to 1.23 before retreating to 1.16 as U.S. economic outperformance reasserts itself.

USD/JPY reveals sharp institutional disagreement. JPMorgan is constructive, projecting the pair to 164 by year-end 2026, arguing that BOJ rate hike expectations are already priced in. Nomura takes the opposite view, contending that narrowing interest rate differentials will curb yen carry trade appeal. If U.S. macro data weakens, unwinding could trigger yen strength, with Nomura targeting 140. For context, this 140–164 range implies a roughly 17% potential variance—substantial volatility around the yen’s direction. (For reference: 200,000 JPY would range from approximately $1,220–$1,425 USD depending on where USD/JPY settles within this forecast band.)

Crude Oil: The Downside Risk Bias

Oil faces structural headwinds. After plunging nearly 20% in 2025 on OPEC+ output restoration and surging U.S. production, most banks lean toward further weakness in 2026. Goldman Sachs sketches a bearish scenario with WTI averaging $52/barrel and Brent at $56/barrel. JPMorgan similarly highlights downside, with WTI potentially averaging $54 and Brent $58, assuming sustained supply surpluses. The risk bias remains tilted toward oversupply rather than geopolitical surprises—a marked contrast to 2025’s rally drivers.

The Takeaway

2026 emerges as a year of selective opportunities: gold and silver benefit from structural tailwinds, Ethereum tokenization could unlock significant upside, equities remain supported by AI capex, and currency positioning hinges on Fed-versus-rest-of-world monetary divergence. Oil, conversely, faces supply-led pressure. Volatility in FX pairs—particularly USD/JPY—underscores the importance of tracking real-time central bank signals and macro data.