Global Maritime Shipping Stock Market Analysis | Why Are Major Shipping Companies Worth Watching?

Why Do Shipping Stocks Experience Volatile Fluctuations? An Analysis of Cyclical Underlying Logic

The core driving force behind the shipping stock industry stems from global trade volume. As a key link in the global supply chain, shipping companies control the lifeblood of international commodity flow. When the global economy is prosperous, international trade is active, demand for goods and resources is strong, and shipping stocks often perform well; conversely, during economic downturns, trade contracts, freight demand plummets, and stock prices tend to be under pressure.

The performance of shipping stocks over the past decade confirms this pattern. After 2010, the recovery of global trade propelled the industry upward, but economic uncertainties and overcapacity in 2015-2016 led to a collective downturn in shipping stocks. In early 2020, the pandemic severely impacted shipping companies, with some leading firms even facing bankruptcy threats. Subsequently, the global economic recovery and supply chain disruptions caused capacity shortages, leading to a strong rebound in shipping stocks in 2021-2022.

However, this rally is now in the past. Take Maersk, the world’s largest shipping company, as an example. After peaking in early 2022, its market value has evaporated by over 60%; the German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd AG’s market cap also retraced nearly 70% from its late 2022 high. Behind these sharp adjustments are rapid deterioration in performance—Maersk’s quarterly revenue dropped from $22.767 billion in mid-2022 to less than $13 billion in Q2 2023, a decline of 43%; quarterly profit collapsed from $8.879 billion to $1.453 billion, a decline of over 83%.

Essential Knowledge Before Investing: Global Shipping Stock Landscape and Major Targets

In the global shipping stock landscape, many giants remain private companies (such as Switzerland’s Mediterranean Shipping Company and France’s CMA CGM), making it difficult for ordinary investors to participate. The following are core options among publicly listed shipping stocks:

International Industry Leaders:

Maersk (AMKBY) – A Danish century-old enterprise founded in 1904, traded via OTC in the US. The company operates in 130 countries, with an annual cargo transport value of about $675 billion, a fleet size of 4,182,031 TEUs, and 76,000 employees. Its diversified route network and scale advantage give it relatively strong resilience.

Hapag-Lloyd (HPGLY) – A German shipping giant established in 1970, also traded OTC in the US. It has footprints in approximately 600 ports worldwide, serving 130 countries, with a capacity of 1,801,738 TEUs.

Orient Overseas (OROVY) – Founded in 1947 as a Chinese enterprise, it shifted to container shipping in 1969 and became one of the world’s top seven liner companies. Although acquired by China COSCO Shipping Group in 2017, its stock continues to trade OTC in the US. It owns over 150 vessels, with a fleet capacity exceeding 10 million tons, and operates in over 130 offices globally.

Asia-Pacific Regional Leaders:

Evergreen (2603) – Taiwan’s leading shipping stock, focusing on routes from the Far East to the Americas, the Southern Hemisphere, and Northern Europe. With over 200 container ships, a total capacity of 1,668,555 TEUs, and coverage of 240 ports worldwide.

Yang Ming (2609) – A Taiwan-based shipping company established in 1972. It serves 170 ports across more than 70 countries, owns container terminal assets, employs over 5,000 staff, and handles 705,614 TEUs.

The Future of Shipping Stocks: An In-Depth Analysis of Four Key Factors

The outlook for shipping stocks depends on the interaction of multiple factors:

Factor 1: The Pace of Macroeconomic Recovery – The current 5.50% federal funds rate set by the Fed suppresses global economic growth. As inflation gradually declines and expectations of rate cuts rise, the global economy is expected to gain breathing room, which is a long-term positive for shipping stocks.

Factor 2: Geopolitical Restructuring of Supply Chains – Accelerating decoupling between Western economies and China, with the US and Europe promoting localized and near-shore manufacturing. This poses significant challenges to shipping companies relying on Far East–Americas/Europe routes—Evergreen and Yang Ming face performance pressures, while globally diversified companies like Maersk are less affected.

Factor 3: Fluctuations in Energy Costs – Rising oil prices directly erode shipping profits. Ongoing conflicts such as Russia-Ukraine and the evolving situation in the Middle East add uncertainty to the crude oil market, putting cost pressures on shipping companies.

Factor 4: Upgrading Environmental Regulations – Stricter carbon emission controls are reshaping the shipping industry landscape. Large shipping stocks with scale advantages can more cost-effectively “green” their fleets, gaining a competitive edge, while small and medium-sized shipping firms face higher compliance costs.

Core Recommendations for Investing in Shipping Stocks

Based on the above analysis, investors should follow these principles:

• Prioritize large-cap shipping stocks with market caps over hundreds of millions of dollars. These giants have clear scale advantages, strong cost-sharing ability, and better resilience during industry downturns.

• Avoid small- and mid-cap shipping stocks. The sensitivity of shipping stocks to macroeconomic fluctuations makes smaller firms more vulnerable during cyclical downturns.

• Be cautious about over-concentrated targets on routes from Far East to the Americas/Europe. With escalating US-China trade frictions and clear supply chain adjustment trends, avoid overly betting on companies heavily dependent on specific routes.

• Pay attention to fleet age structure. The age of ships directly impacts future environmental compliance costs; companies with younger fleets are better positioned to reduce long-term risks.

Summary: Opportunities in Shipping Stocks from a Cyclical Investment Perspective

Shipping stocks are essentially a barometer of macroeconomic conditions, closely linked to global economic cycles. Investors interested in entering should adopt a cyclical mindset—gradually building positions near the bottom of the cycle, holding long-term, and gradually reducing near the top.

Simultaneously, focus on company scale, diversification, and environmental preparedness. Large global shipping stocks like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, with extensive international layouts, are more resilient and worth long-term tracking. While macro uncertainties persist in the short term, from a cyclical bottom perspective, selectively positioning in large-cap stocks may be timely.