#比特币价格走势与周期 Recently, there has been discussion about Bitcoin cycle predictions, and the views of Peter Brandt and VanEck are quite thought-provoking. One predicts a peak in September 2029, while the other is optimistic about a rebound opportunity in 2026. The underlying numbers actually reflect the same phenomenon — Bitcoin is indeed experiencing regular cyclical fluctuations.

However, I want to say that although these predictions come from professionals, they should not be used as direct signals to adjust your positions. History shows that five parabolic rises on a logarithmic scale followed by over 80% declines are fluctuations significant enough to cause many to chase gains at the high and cut losses at the low.

The truly prudent approach is to accept the existence of these cycles rather than trying to precisely time them. My three suggestions are: first, clearly define the maximum loss you can tolerate, which determines your reasonable position size; second, review periodically rather than adjust frequently, as a long-term mindset is often more valuable than short-term predictions; third, remember that any asset’s proportion in your portfolio should be a well-considered result, not an impulsive reaction to a forecast.

Cycles will continue, and opportunities will persist. But protecting your principal is the most fundamental wisdom when participating in any cycle.