StallMiningGuy

#稳定币市场竞争 Seeing the recent news in the stablecoin sector, I have some thoughts I’d like to share with everyone.
The Circle CEO mentioned that stablecoins will experience an "explosion" in 2026, and CZ also pointed out that the industry is still in its early stages. These viewpoints all point to the same phenomenon—the stablecoin market is far from saturated. But what I want to say is that market enthusiasm often clouds our judgment.
Currently, mainstream stablecoins like USDT and USDC are quite mature but lack attractive yields. New generation stablecoin products are emerging, some with limit

#AI与加密货币结合 Seeing this case of AVA tokens, I want to discuss a recurring phenomenon. When the AI concept is combined with cryptocurrency, it often becomes a "hunting ground" for capital sniping — 23 related wallets captured 40% of the supply at launch. The underlying logic is quite simple: arbitrage opportunities created by information asymmetry.
Over the past few years, I have seen too many investors lose their judgment in the face of new concepts. The combination of AI and crypto sounds dazzling, but fundamentally, you should ask three questions: Is the token distribution transparent? Is th

#价格分析预测 Seeing the discussions about the new QE and Bitcoin target prices, I want to share some thoughts.
Market expectations are high, but reality often takes time to materialize. Arthur Hayes's analytical framework—liquidity release → fiat currency depreciation → crypto asset benefits—this logical chain is valid in itself. However, the jump from the $80,000 range to $124,000 and then to $200,000 involves too many uncertainties that need to be digested.
The most interesting detail is that, while he is bullish, he transferred 508 ETH to exchanges. This behavior of "talking bullish but selling

#比特币价格走势 Recently, I've seen various analyses about Bitcoin's prospects before 2026, and opinions are truly diverse. Some say it will hit new all-time highs, others predict it will rise to 170,000 within three months, and some believe it will drop below 60,000 in the first half of the year. This extreme divergence prompted me to share an observation.
Analyst predictions are essentially a game of probabilities; no one can accurately grasp the market. The fluctuations we see—from 126,000 in October to 84,000 in November—highlight this point. In the face of such uncertainty, more important than

#稳定币 Seeing Intuit's move, I actually feel quite reassured. A financial software giant handling over ten billion dollars in annual funds and serving more than 100 million users is seriously considering integrating stablecoin payments into TurboTax and QuickBooks. What does this indicate? It shows that the convenience and cost advantages of on-chain payments are beginning to be recognized by the mainstream financial ecosystem.
But I want to remind everyone not to be blindly optimistic just because big companies are entering the space. The expansion of stablecoin applications is a good thing; f

#比特币价格预测 Seeing Citibank's forecast that Bitcoin could reach $143,000 within the year, some investors are indeed starting to get restless. But I want to remind everyone that the same report also clearly outlines risk scenarios—potentially dropping to $78,500 in a global recession. This 62% upside expectation is separated from the pessimistic scenario by an uncertain world.
Institutional forecasts often give the illusion of a "clear direction," but the truth of the market is: even professionals use ranges to express their views, which itself indicates the presence of risk. I've seen too many p

#稳定币 Seeing Aave release its 2026 strategy, I am pondering a question: When the institutional RWA market Horizon launches, what role will stablecoins play?
From the news, Horizon allows institutions to borrow stablecoins using tokenized assets like government bonds, indicating that stablecoins are evolving from retail tools into financial infrastructure. With $75 billion in net deposits and a 52% fee share, these numbers reflect a trend—the boundaries between traditional finance and on-chain finance are blurring.
But there's a detail worth cautioning: the larger the scale, the more critical r

#稳定币发行与类型 Recently, I came across several news stories about traditional financial giants entering the stablecoin race, which left a deep impression.
Intuit integrating USDC, SoFi issuing SoFiUSD, JPMorgan launching JPM Coin... these are not minor moves. A closer look reveals a common point: they are all using stablecoins to reshape the underlying logic of payments. Whether it's for tax refunds, salaries, or corporate payments, the core demand is—faster, cheaper, more transparent.
What insights can be drawn from this? I think there are two points worth considering:
**First, the form of stable

#预测市场 Seeing CZ talk about prediction markets, I started to reflect. He said, "Teams with obvious short-term advantages may win, but true victory is achieved in long-term competition"—this sentence is a wake-up call for all investors.
Prediction markets are indeed popular, but popularity often comes with risks. I have seen too many people attracted by short-term opportunities, going all-in on a certain track, only to be caught off guard when market sentiment shifts. The issue isn't whether the track itself is good or not, but whether we truly understand what we are betting on.
The penetration

#AI基础设施投资 Seeing CZ's layout in the AI and education fields, what moved me the most wasn't how hot a particular project is, but the profound meaning behind the phrase "Keep Building."
Over the past two years, I've interacted with many investors. Many are dazzled by the hype around AI infrastructure—betting on computing power today, following a certain track tomorrow, and hurriedly cutting losses the day after. But those who truly navigate cycles are not driven by chasing hot topics; they understand the essence of the cycle.
AI infrastructure is like a long-distance run, requiring continuous r

#预测市场发展 The discussion about prediction markets has heated up again, and I want to share some thoughts with everyone.
In the past two years, prediction markets have indeed been developing rapidly. Industry leaders' view of a "super cycle" reflects the true demand of the market—people are eager to obtain information from more transparent and honest signals. I understand this logic and agree on the value of prediction markets in information discovery.
But I want to issue a warning here: opportunities and risks often coexist. When a field attracts a large influx of capital, participants' enthusi

#稳定币市场发展 Seeing this set of data from Hyperliquid, I have some thoughts I want to share with everyone.
The perpetual contract trading volume of $205.6 billion has generated only $80.3 million in fees — a realization rate of 3.9 basis points. This comparison is indeed quite striking. With the same trading scale, Coinbase can earn 35.5 basis points, and Robinhood is also at 33.5 basis points. The gap is not just in numbers; it reflects two completely different business models behind them.
What I want to remind everyone most is: exchanges and brokers may both seem to be doing "trading," but thei

#日本央行加息政策 Seeing the Bank of Japan finally take this step—raising interest rates to 0.75%, a thirty-year high—my first reaction isn't excitement but a reminder to be more cautious.
I understand the logic behind this decision: the yen is under significant depreciation pressure, wages are growing steadily, and inflation expectations remain high. But the key point is that Governor Ueda Haruhiko clearly stated at the press conference—they believe they are still far from the "neutral interest rate," and some officials even think 1% is still too low. What does this mean? They will continue to raise

#比特币价格走势 Seeing Bloomberg analysts' views that Bitcoin might retrace to around ten thousand yuan, I am reminded of a frequently overlooked investment truth: **After good news is realized, the market often faces tests**.
Two years ago, when Bitcoin was close to ten thousand yuan, the concepts of spot ETFs and policy recognition that once seemed distant have now become reality. A detail mentioned by McGlone is worth pondering—cryptocurrency types increased from 1 in 2009 to 28 million. What does this indicate? It shows that the scarcity driving price increases is weakening, and market expectati

#稳定币市场与发展 Seeing the news that Circle launched the Arc Developer Fund, I recalled an important observation — the maturity of the stablecoin ecosystem actually begins with such infrastructure investments.
Many friends ask me why I focus on the development direction of stablecoins rather than just price fluctuations. To be honest, it’s like building a house. A solid foundation is necessary before you can live peacefully. Circle’s dedicated funding to support real-world financial applications, on-chain markets, asset trading, and other scenarios reflects that stablecoins are gradually evolving f

#比特币价格走势 Seeing the data that Bitcoin has fallen below the short-term holder cost basis, I am reminded of a few stories I have encountered over the years.
Those friends who bought in at high levels are now facing a test—SOPR indicator has dropped to 0.98, meaning short-term buyers are on average at a loss. This is the most prone to panic selling and also the best time to see a person's investment mindset clearly.
What I want to remind is that, during the price testing $70,000, protecting your principal is more important than bottom fishing. This is not to say you shouldn't participate, but in

#稳定币 Recently, I’ve come across some news about stablecoins and Federal Reserve policy adjustments, and I want to share some thoughts with everyone.
The regulatory environment is indeed shifting towards a more friendly stance, which is a positive signal in itself. The Federal Reserve has rolled back previous restrictive policies, and banks are expanding their participation in crypto-related businesses. This means the compliance foundation of the entire industry is being strengthened. However, there is a common pitfall to watch out for — an improved policy environment does not mean you can rel

#ETF与衍生品 Seeing Hyperliquid's share drop from 80% to 20%, many people are starting to worry. But what I want to say is that this is precisely a case worth pondering—it's not the problem of derivatives themselves, but how we view risk.
The volatility of the derivatives market is inherently high. Hyperliquid's story tells us that even former market leaders can face short-term shocks due to strategic adjustments. The easiest mistake to make at this point is to chase hype and follow the trend to switch positions.
My advice is simple: if you have allocated to derivatives-related ETFs or products,

#以太坊投资机会 Seeing JPMorgan launch a tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, my first reaction isn't excitement but reflection—what does this mean behind the scenes?
The involvement of traditional financial institutions indeed validates the value of blockchain technology, and a seed funding of $100 million is enough to demonstrate their serious attitude. But what does this mean for us investors? I want to remind everyone that the entry of institutions doesn't mean we should immediately follow suit and buy in.
Such news often tends to ignite market sentiment, making people unable to resist when

#比特币机构配置与囤积 Seeing the crypto asset allocation actions of listed companies this week, I am pondering a question—why are these companies expanding their Bitcoin reserves while also venturing into multi-chain assets like Ethereum and Filecoin?
A careful look at the data can help us understand. Strategy already holds over 660,000 Bitcoins, and Twenty One Capital announced over 40,000 holdings on its first day. These are not impulsive moves but carefully calculated asset allocation decisions. Even more interesting, some companies have already integrated crypto assets with specific business scenar