# 比特币价格走势与周期

#比特币价格走势与周期 An interesting perspective! After reading the views of the Galaxy research director, I suddenly realized—when we discuss Bitcoin prices, we need to factor in inflation, the "invisible killer."
In nominal terms, Bitcoin has indeed surpassed $126,000, which looks impressive. But if we convert using 2020's purchasing power? The data shows it hasn't even reached $100,000. This isn't a devaluation of Bitcoin; rather, it reveals a deeper truth: **Global currencies are continuously depreciating, and Bitcoin, as a digitally scarce asset, is increasingly serving as a value anchor**.
Wang F

#比特币价格走势与周期 Watching Bitcoin fluctuate repeatedly between $85,000 and $90,000, I recall the worst times I got wiped out. Back then, the most frightening thing was these false moves that seemed like a breakout—every time it approached a resistance level, I would buy the dip, only to get crushed back down.
Now looking at this situation, my mindset is completely different. Bitcoin is trapped in a narrow range of 85k-90k, and it doesn't feel the least bit affected by Wall Street's year-end optimism. This is a very clear signal: without genuine demand driving it, relying solely on emotional hype c

#比特币价格走势与周期 Seeing the recent community debates about the $90,000 resistance level, I was reminded of the shadows of the 2017 cycle. Back then, there were similar disagreements—some firmly believed a breakout was imminent, while others sensed the risk. Now, looking at this warning of liquidity exhaustion and volatility dropping to historic lows, I recognize this signal all too well.
Low volatility often signals calm before the storm. Markets around Christmas have always been plagued by liquidity concerns, and the continuous squeeze on long contracts is like a tightly stretched string— the tig

Since the October crash, the flow of chips has been worth paying attention to. Data shows that long-term holders are distributing heavily, especially those selling chips in the $60,000-$70,000 range—most of these positions were accumulated before last year's presidential election, and now, after significant profit compression, they are rapidly realizing gains.
Even more concerning is the inverted cost structure: 7.462 million coins are floating with unrealized gains below, while 6.168 million coins are floating with unrealized losses above—appearing nearly balanced, but in reality, profit-taki

#比特币价格走势与周期 🚨 To be honest, the new all-time high of Bitcoin at $126,000 sounds impressive, but anyone who truly understands economics knows—it's an illusion😤
Galaxy's research director directly exposed the truth: considering inflation, BTC has never actually broken $100,000. Since 2020, the dollar's purchasing power has been continuously depreciating. When calculated with real purchasing power? Bitcoin's price has never truly exceeded $100,000. That's why when the Federal Reserve's printing presses run, asset prices soar, but your wallet doesn't get any fatter.
Wang Feng also said it sharp

#比特币价格走势与周期 The liquidity exhaustion before Christmas is indeed a warning sign to watch out for. Recently, the Chinese community has shown increasing divergence on the short-term direction of Bitcoin—some are bearish on the $90,000 resistance, while others are still dreaming of a long position. This polarization itself suggests that market participants' confidence is weakening.
The key issue is that when volatility drops to historical lows, contract longs continue to be squeezed, which is a dangerous signal combination. Liquidity exhaustion means that once sentiment reverses, the selling pres

#比特币价格走势与周期 After analyzing the latest on-chain data, the sharp decline on 10.11 indeed marked the starting point of this round of correction. Long-term holders are engaging in large-scale distribution, which is a key signal—indicating a significant change in the market’s chip structure.
Data shows that the 80,000-90,000 USD range has the highest accumulation of chips (2.536 million BTC), making it the strongest support level. Conversely, the 70,000-80,000 USD range has become a relatively vacant zone, with only 190,000 BTC remaining. In other words, if the price truly reaches this range, it

#比特币价格走势与周期 Once again, big players are predicting Bitcoin. This time, it's even more intense—Peter Brandt predicts a bull market high in September 2029, while VanEck is optimistic about Bitcoin turning into the best asset by 2026.
Honestly, these predictions are quite interesting. Brandt definitely has some credibility; he predicted the crash in 2018, and now he's saying that Bitcoin has experienced five logarithmic parabolic rallies in history, each followed by an 80% or more crash... It sounds like he's saying this thing has a temper and cycles are very strong.
But what really struck me is

#比特币价格走势与周期 Recently, I came across a very interesting perspective that somewhat overturns my previous understanding😅
Although Bitcoin has surpassed its historical high of $126,000, when considering inflation and adjusting with 2020 dollars, the price actually hasn't broken $100,000? It sounds a bit crazy when you think about it this way, but it also seems to make sense🤔
Some people also say that humanity is now searching for a "scarce universal consensus." With geopolitical conflicts and the AI wave, along with the significant depreciation pressure on national currencies, this actually cr

#比特币价格走势与周期 Recently, there has been discussion about Bitcoin cycle predictions, and the views of Peter Brandt and VanEck are quite thought-provoking. One predicts a peak in September 2029, while the other is optimistic about a rebound opportunity in 2026. The underlying numbers actually reflect the same phenomenon — Bitcoin is indeed experiencing regular cyclical fluctuations.
However, I want to say that although these predictions come from professionals, they should not be used as direct signals to adjust your positions. History shows that five parabolic rises on a logarithmic scale followe