#BTC Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structure Interpretation
Today, Bitcoin's market showed short-term downward pressure. The latest行情 indicates BTC once surged close to 94,700 during the week but failed to stabilize, followed by signs of a pullback, currently stabilizing around 90,800. The market feels like a rebound reaching a certain height and then encountering resistance, leading to slight retracement and consolidation. This rhythm suggests that the short-term bullish momentum is easing, with bears actively pressuring the upper zone, causing the price to oscillate repeatedly.

2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-Chain & Exchange Dynamics Observation
Capital Flow: ETF and institutional funds still participate to some extent after the New Year opening, but there has been no significant large-scale net inflow recently. This indicates that the capital side remains cautious and tentative, with bulls not fully ramping up their follow-through.
On-Chain Behavior: On-chain data does not show short-term concentrated selling pressure (such as large transfers out of exchanges). This suggests that despite price pressure, small investors or long-term holders are not fleeing in large numbers.
Exchange Dynamics: BTC balances on exchanges fluctuate little, with relatively stable inflows and outflows, indicating that short-term selling pressure and buying support are still testing each other. There is no clear tilt in either direction. Overall, the capital side is not strong enough to support a breakout, but there are no obvious signs of a sharp decline either.

3️⃣ Intraday Observation & Key Level Projection
Bullish Strategy: If BTC can hold above support zone 1 and show increased volume on upward moves, consider small long positions, with stop-loss set below support zone 1. Target the resistance zone 1.
Overall, the short-term direction has not been fully confirmed, so it’s better to focus on range trading and avoid rushing into trend bets.

4️⃣ Risk Tips
Fake Breakout Risk: The current range may experience false breakouts, with quick pullbacks after upward breaches or rapid rebounds after downward breaks.
Rhythm Volatility Risk: During holidays and early in the year, trading activity is limited, making prices more susceptible to short-term volatility caused by trading behaviors.
Macro Disruption Risk: Slight declines in US stocks and the tech sector also impact risk asset sentiment. External disturbances like these can cause short-term fluctuations.