#降息会引领币圈大牛市吗？

Stop thinking/shouting about interest rate cuts all the time. Interest rate cuts are not the savior. The time of constantly expecting interest rate cuts is very precious. At least now there is a story about interest rate cuts to tell. Half-baked KOLs do not understand the macro but love to clamor. Interest rate cuts do not mean that water will come immediately. There is at least a transmission period of 0.5~1 year for interest rate cuts.

"Rate cuts = easing" will mislead many retail investors. Many retail investors are now ready to rush in immediately after the rate cut (waiting to be cut).

Macroeconomics should be considered, but it's meaningless to talk about it every day. Only half-hearted KOLs know how to call for interest rate cuts, but do they know what it means after the rate cut? It means telling a story of decline. Now, the higher-than-expected unemployment rate is favorable information because a higher unemployment rate calls for interest rate cuts. Once interest rates are actually cut, a higher-than-expected unemployment rate means recession.

Macro analysis is not something you can understand by watching a few videos or reading a few superficial posts. At the very least, you need to carefully study all the history of the post-World War II world reconstruction, understand why the dollar is the foundation of the world reconstruction, and comprehend the challenges the dollar currently faces.

Before the interest rate cut, this period was a honeymoon period, a mini spring. Ethereum and altcoins will have a wave, and institutions also need to dump and cash out before the narrative of recession, which is the basic logic of this mini bull market.

"No rate cut, no bull market", this idea is very dangerous and immature. Cherish this honeymoon period and hold onto your spot. When the rate cut really comes, that's when we should liquidate/temporarily exit and re-enter when the narrative of recession crushes everyone's psychological defense lines!