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#LADYS View: BTC is at a key bull-bear stage of this cycle
According to CryptoQuant's data, the BTC profit and loss index is currently hovering around its 365-day moving average, which usually represents an upcoming significant adjustment or the beginning of a continued Bear Market. This data previously indicated the precursor to a Depth decline that began in May and November 2021 when a death cross occurred.
In addition, CryptoQuant's BTC Bull Market cycle indicator is also approaching a critical level indicating the entry into a Bear Market. The lack of rise in Tether (USDT) Market Cap also indicates that a Rebound may be difficult to achieve, as historical recoveries have been largely attributed to the rise in stablecoin Liquidity.
However, CryptoQuant's data also shows that BTCWhale has been increasing its holdings in the recent downtrend, with Whaleholder increasing its holdings by 6.3% in the past month, the fastest pace since April 2023. The German government's massive sell-off seems to be coming to an end (with 13,100 remaining). Other favorable information factors, such as the approved ETH Spot ETF and the continuous rise of US stock indices, indicate that despite short-term weakness, there will still be a pump in 2024.
Presto analyst Peter Chung stated that from July 1 to October 31, 2024, Mt. Gox will distribute billions of dollars in BTC and BCH, potentially altering the supply and demand dynamics of BTC and BCH, creating Hedging Transactions opportunities. Analysis shows that the selling pressure of BCH will be four times that of BTC. Data shows that BTC's trading volume has exceeded $27 billion in the past 24 hours, while BCH is at $180 million.
Presto believes that early BTC investors are more likely to hold their assets, while the investor base for BCH is weaker and may sell off all their assets in the short term.